Turkey NERD!!!

3-Betting in NLHE, An Introduction

2009-02-23T12:15:00.001-08:00

Since my online cash experience prior was not terribly profitable, even when I’d play TAG, I realized I needed to evaluate my play and really push outside of my own comfort zone to make myself a profitable player. While I am more of a natural nit than a gambler, I realized that I am successful for the most part when I establish an image and I play off it. Since online play usually involves gambling with new players, I found that I can drive action and build pots by 3-betting preflop.

For those of you unfamiliar with the concept, 3-betting is a preflop reraise, generally from later position or the blinds. This is a strong tournament play, but it also has its place in cash games. If timed properly, 3-betting can be used to bet for value, as a semibluff, or as a flat out bluff. Here are several benefits to 3-betting:

1. Isolation. By making a reraise in later position, you chase away drawing hands and stronger players (who can play post-flop). Often times, you will end up heads up against a scared open raiser. Most standard players are not calling a raise and a reraise. Not only are they worried about your holdings, but they have to worry about the initial raiser as well. These players are squeezed out of the pot. Since it’s easier to read and outplay 1 player, this is advantageous to skilled post flop players.

2. Value. If you have a big hand, you want to play a big pot, so you’re going to reraise preflop. However, if opponents realize that you only reraise when you have AA/KK/QQ/AKs, you’re not going to get called very much when you make these plays. You have to vary your play to maximize value long term. That means reraising with a wider range of hands… maybe even absolute junk once or twice every other session.

3. Table Image. Aggression wins pots, so being on the attack when you think (or know) you’re ahead builds up your potential and actual profit. I’m capable of raising preflop with any 2 cards, depending on my position and opponents. However, if I know that a player to my left is capable of reraising me more often than not, I am less likely to push the action. I have found recently that my willingness to 3-bet has tamed some aggressive opponents and has also allowed me to earn some cheap flops with value hands.

4. Overall equity. Many times, a 3-bet will take the blinds + the initial raise (total take of 3-5 total BB’s without seeing a flop), which is a nice win. However, you want to play big pots with your big hands. You want a player to go all in with a Q-4 against your AA. By choosing your spots and playing with discipline, you can add to your overall win rate. Sure, you might get reraised again (a 4-bet) and will have to fold, but long term, I believe that the play is a profitable one for building pot equity. Your end goal is to win all the money. You win all the money by playing big pots. Since many novice players are looser and more aggressive pre-flop than post-flop, you can take advantage of this tendency to build pots, then outplay them. Finally, as I have mentioned, when you have your monster hands, you’re more likely to get action because your opponents have more trouble putting you on a big one.

This is an outline and guide about why 3-betting can be a good play. I obviously don’t condone making it a usual play, but it should be a move in your poker toolbox. In just a few sessions, I have found that it works best if you are capable of changing gears to keep your opponents guessing. This is a risky play in micro and low games because your opponents are more erratic and also cannot get away from hands. You put yourself at risk to win or lose some big pots, but that’s the name of the game… If you time the move properly and mix up your hand ranges, you can confuse these lesser opponents and really drive a lot of value. My advice for new players is to play your game and quickly identify 3-bet candidates, then deploy this technique at the correct juncture. This tool is not always the best play, but if you master it, it can be profitable at these low stakes. I am still learning when and who to 3-bet, so as I figure it out, I’ll share it with all of you.

Next: Ideal 3-bet Circumstances

EMHD 4: An Interesting Hand / Aggression in Position

2009-02-23T09:19:00.000-08:00

This weekend's EMHD probably had more than it's fair share of interesting hands, but by the time I saw the full field the blinds were high and the short stacks were shoving, so a good bit of the play was pre-flop and while dramatic, not so interesting. I did however find a hand on the first table

that I enjoyed watching. It was a large pot for this stage in the tournament, and while the hand didn't make it to showdown proper, all three participants revealed at the end.

At the midway point(15 minutes) of the second blind level (50/100), Texas Crint held the button, NCBoomer posted the small blind, and Alan Sooted posted the big blind. Jim1 called the 100, The Dog Wagger-er folded, Jim3 limped, El Pinata folded, MH62 limped, Hulk(me) folded, and Dan raised it to 300. Texas Crint folded, but all the original limpers added their extra 200 to the pot.

FLOP:

It's a fun flop, but it's checked around to Dan who promptly bets out 600 into the 1050 pot. NCBoomer called, the three Jims folded (Dog Wagger-er is another James) and MH62 calls as well, we're gonna have 3 to a turn. At this point I'm thinking that Dan's holding Ace Queen, and the Drawing Duo of MH62 and NCBoomer have straight draws, at least one of them open ended.

Turn:

A pretty card for Dan as I see it. I'd expect the betting to go check, check, Bet, Fold, Fold. But as so often is the case I'm wrong. I get the check, check, Bet. 1500 into 2850 pot, however what follows is Call from NCBoomer, and a labored call from MH62. I'm still pretty sure that NCBoomer's got the straight draw, and his quick call means he's open ended. MH62 consternifies (if I may borrow some of his lexicon) me. I still think he's got a straight draw ... don't think he'd play an over pair this way, but maybe he's trying to milk the pot with Kings or Aces for a big win, and it's just blown up on him. He wrestles with the decision for a bit, but makes the call.

I guess it's these calls that make this hand interesting to me. Let's say for argument's sake that somebody's holding K J. There's a decent chance your Ace outs are gone, as there's a good chance they give Dan a Full House. The 9 might not be good either, I don't think it's beyond Dan to raise in position with a suited Q 9 less likely, but possible. And if you've ever played with NCBoomer, he could easily be holding J 9, as he could 9 10 and be waiting to bluff on the river.

The River:

This should do it. The action I expected on the Turn came here: check check, bet 1500, fold, fold.
Dan pulls the pot of 9350 towards him. MH62 is frustrated, and shows:

MH62 Shows:

Now the tough decision makes sense to me. Open ended and the flush redraw.

Dan Shows:

Well I'll be a monkey's uncle ! (Who's gotta scar?) All that aggression with a pair of tens. I'd have laid cash money that he had a Queen and made his boat on the river. I gotta guess he put the other two on draws and bet it well.

NCBoomer Shows:

And drops his jaw ... but picks it back up to make sure the Coors Light finds it's way home.

Hindsight:
I guess I shouldn't be shocked to see those cards from NCBoomer or MH62. Dan played aggressively in position and knew that MH62's call on the turn meant that NCBoomer couldn't call if a scare card hit the river, even if he believed that he had Dan beat ... he said so when all the cards got shown. I guess it's my over thinking the turn call that made this hand interesting to me, but I'm sure you'll let me know in the comments.

EMHD 4: The Unofficial Results

2009-02-22T06:53:00.000-08:00

With Fat Tony the Super Proxy playing in place of EMG at yesterday's EMHD event, you're gonna get my take on the 4th event in the series. Since I've left my notes closer to another computer, I can only tell my story, some general observations, and give some unofficial results. Let's start with the prize winners and how some of your favorite players finished:

Klinker B.
James the Dog Wagger-er
Jock-O
Stevie Sunglasses

6. Fat Tony as EMG
7. El Pinata
10. Hulk
14.(?) Texas Crint
16.(?) MH62

Fortunately for me, I didn't get a chance to move around a lot and survey the field. I got stuck in a corner seat (again) at table 2 with the with MH62, El Pinata, Texas Crint, 3 Jims and a Dan, with Alan rounding out the field. I started the tournament card dead and even when I thought a re-raise might win a pot, I saw 8 2 off suit and didn't have the intestinal fortitude to pull that move. I won a pot with AQ off suit when I limped into a near family pot at the 25/50 level. A passive play, but I was trying to set a baseline with the players I don't see regularly, get them to assume it was better than AQ if I raised in later levels. I stayed right around even, but mostly paying my blinds and folding until a series of hands starting in the 100/200 level.

An Under the Gun raise to 575 at 100/200 with AK off was met with button shove from James the Dog Wagger-er. It would have cost me half of my remaining stack, about 2500 to call. I tanked for some time, trying to figure out how big a pair I was up against. There was something about his body language that said he was strong, but was worried. I couldn't decide if it meant Pocket Kings and he didn't want to be called with an Ace, or if it were Queens or Jacks. Hindsight says it was too tight a fold, but fold I did, thinking a better spot would be right around the corner with the button coming my way. I was shown pocket Jacks when my cards went dead. The next few hands were a sequence of me getting beaten up. I flopped a Queen with a King kicker on a [Q | 4 | 6] board after paying my blinds, bet out 500 and was raised to 2000 by Dan. I know I'm beat, he either limped with 4s or had A Q. The hand that hurt the most was the better spot I was hoping for a little while earlier.

Under the gun or close too it, I wake up with Pocket Kings. I raise to 575 still at 100/200 leaving me with about 3000 chips behind. The Dog-Wagger-er flat calls me, and we're heads up to the flop. With all the lay downs I've made so far, I've got to believe he called me with a big ace, maybe if I'm lucky Queens. I check the flop of [Ace of clubs | RAG | RAG], assuming he'll bet about pot and I can get away from it. He's smart, keeps me on the hook for 500 more, and when the Jack of clubs falls on the turn, I get the feeling he's got Ace Jack, or maybe even pocket jacks, and is afraid of what he might think is a club draw. Either way I was done with that pot ... I was done with it when the Ace hit.

Some blinds pass and with about 2500 in my stack at 300/600 I limp with 8s 8c in early position, hoping for a raise somewhere, so I can shove and flip for it. I don't get the raise, but I do see a magic flop of [8d | K | 4s]. MH62 Shoved for 1925, and my last 1900 went in right behind it. He showed 8h 4c. The turn or river put another 4 on board and as much as I had been feeling like a punching bag earlier I can imagine MH62 had it worse ... I just don't know what he was seein'.

And that's it. My tournament didn't technically end there, but it did. But some shoves, and folds, and I stayed between 3000 and 3900 until we moved to the final table. I drew a seat in the blinds for the last few minutes of 300/600 and didn't pull he trigger by the time the blinds got back to me when they were 500/1000. End Game. I'll be back tonight with some final table talk.

Making the Right Moves Doesn't Always Pay, Online Hand 2/20/09

2009-02-20T09:52:00.000-08:00

Here is an example of playing a hand well and still losing. I played aggressively, but I think I missed a chance to reraise the turn, resulting in a lost opportunity and a small loss by most anyone's standards.

Preflop: I joined this table specifically to play against the big stack. I had been playing aggressively with a lot of preflop raising and some 3-betting in key spots. I had been attacking the big stack specifically to get involved in a big pot. I got my wish, albeit without a huge hand. Any K in the SB against a random hand is likely to be favored, so I pumped it up to 15 cents (pot bet). He is a tighter player and calls. I put him on bigger cards, perhaps a KJ.

Flop: Bingo! This flop hit me and likely did not hit him. What's more, with my aggressive table image, he's not likely to believe that I've hit this hand. I lead out for about half the pot (15 cents) and he flat calls, almost certainly with overs. My read of KJ range is probably intact.

Turn: The 8 isn't likely to have helped him, so I lead out again for 25 cents (40% of the pot). He reraises me to 75 cents, probably thinking I'm on the steal. This is not a bad assumption, given that I'm raising preflop a good bit of the time. The pot is large enough for him to take a stab. I think about reraising again, but I only have a pair of 5's with a good kicker. He could have called with A-8. I play small ball and flat call, thinking there's a good chance I'm still good, but wanting to keep him on the hook for a value bet on the river.

River: A 10 is not really a good card at all here. Many players will call with x-10 because it looks nice, and the 10 connects to a lot of hands, like A-10, K-10 (hand of death), Q-10, J-10, 10-9, 10-8. I decide to block bet my 5's with an 80 center into a pot of $2 or so. I think it's enough to win on its own much of the time, but I also have fold equity. He flat calls, and I know I'm beat. He flips over Q-10 for the win.

Analysis: With the exception of maybe reraising on the turn for information, I think I played the hand pretty well. I was worried about my opponents TAG style, plus I assumed he accumulated a $20+ stack by outplaying people. I thought he was a capable opponent, so I played it a bit less risky. Overall, I think I made the moves necessary to win a nice pot. I just happened to get unlucky on the river. I give my opponent a great deal of credit for the creative turn bet, which allowed him to see a river and get another bet out of me. He probably got max value (unless he called a hypothetical reraise on the turn, which was unlikely).

Go West, Young Pinata... Go West...

2009-02-18T07:41:00.000-08:00

There comes a time in every little piñata’s life where he is confronted with a choice: continue to slave away as a cog in the airplane industry trade association machine or go to Los Angeles to pursue your dreams of being a male model/comedic writer. Fortunately for Piñata and unfortunately for the rest of us, our little baby is movin’ on up to the East side… of Compton. He will surely be missed, from his trying to destroy Mark’s television during a fantasy baseball auction to his always appropriate sense of humor to his “tight-aggressive” table image. Piñata has been a stalwart at the poker table. He is a good man, and we all wish him well.

In his honor, we will congregate tonight for a round of mixed games (Omaha Hi, Omaha Hi/Low, Stud Hi, and Stud Hi/Low). We will play $60 stacks with $1/$2 limit stakes. Stud hands will have a $.25 ante per hand. Expected to be in attendance: Piñata (the guest of honor), MH62, Fat Tony, Hulk, Guido, NJM, Shrek, and I. I’m sure we’ll have plenty of interesting hands to analyze. More later or tomorrow…

Ship It!!!!

2009-02-18T07:39:00.001-08:00

MH6-2, Guido, Pinata, and Shrek went to Atlantic City for the holiday weekend into Tuesday (2/17/09). All of them came back as winners. Early reports are that Shrek had 2 monster winning sessions and won $1,200 or more at the poker table. Guido also won over $1k, while MH62 and Pinata walked + $500 or more each. Pinata's win was rather impressive given that at one point, he was stuck $600. A nice turnaround...

Congrats, fellas!

Good Read + Ballsy Move With Pocket 4's, 2/11/09 Live Game

2009-02-14T07:27:00.000-08:00

Near the end of the night at the Lunch Money Game, we were down to 6 handed, as Bob, Omaha, and Orange left early. I was sitting on about $80 (pretty much even for the night), and Pinata had a larger stack, probably at least $150. We played a pot for all my money, and even if I had lost, I think it was the best hand I've ever played. I put my opponent on a hand, was absolutely right, and I won a massive pot.

Preflop: It is folded around to Pinata on the button, who raises to $3. This is a little larger than button raises that he usually makes. That raises my radar, thinking that he has a relatively big hand, and he's hoping to get involved in a bigger pot. I put him on the hand range of pocket 7's-J's, plus AK, AQ, AJ, possibly KQ. I am in the small blind for 25 cents. I look down and pick up pocket 4's. I hope to call, hit a set, and crack him good. NJM folds, and we're heads up to the flop.

Flop: The 8-3-2 rainbow flop is very good for my pocket 4's. I'm pretty sure I have the best hand right now, but I also want to get some value out of it. I know that Pinata is a loose-aggressive (LAG) player. This image helps him win some big pots with his big hands. I decide to check to him, planning a check-raise to take down a larger pot, plus I can find out exactly where I'm at. I check, he bets $5. I get what I'm looking for, and the pot is now $11.50. I opt to reraise to $14 total. It is only $9 more to him, but I've shown that I don't believe him. It is almost a pot-sized reraise to him.

Pinata now goes into the tank, probably trying to put me on a hand range. I could have any pair, a set, AK, AQ, AJ, A-10, or A-8, or I could have absolutely nothing. He puts me on a hand and reraises to $40 total. Now I'm a little concerned. I replay the hand (especially the size of the preflop raise). I have him on a hand like 99 or AK/AQ. I am literally in the tank for about 2 minutes trying to figure it out. Was he reraising for information or was he reraising for value? Finally, I decide he has AK. I push all in for about $37 more.

Now Pinata is in the tank. He does not instacall. The fact that I wasn't snap-called makes me confident that I have the best hand. My biggest fear that this point would be Pocket 5's, 6's, and 7's, but I'm pretty confident that I made the right move here. Pinata puts me on 4's, 5's, or 6's (he told me after). The pot is worth about $123, and he has to call $37 or so for a chance to win the pot, so his pot odds are almost 4:1, and he has 6 outs twice to win (25% or about 3:1). In this case, he's getting the odds to call based on mathematics, plus the pot is $123 ($160 if he calls). That's assuming he puts me on a pocket pair and not a set. If I have a set, he's drawing dead. Pinata decides I have a pair and not a set based on the action. He makes a mathematical call.

Result: The turn and river are blanks, and I scoop a $160 pot.

Analysis: In terms of overall play, I think this hand was played well by both players. Both of us played at the second level, and we made proper plays based on the information. After a night of really playing badly, I salvaged a profit by playing very well for about 5 minutes.

"Bob" Makes a Tough Laydown on a Dangerous Board, 2/11/09 Game

2009-02-13T10:57:00.001-08:00

As we all know, a huge part of winning poker is trusting your reads, then making the right plays based on those reads. Getting away from big made hands when you think (or know) that you’re beat will save you huge in the long run. “Bob” and I played for a rather large side pot on Wednesday. While my move pushed him out of a decent-sized pot with the best hand, I think he analyzed the hand correctly and made a good laydown given his read of the situation. While the video below might read as a successful bluff by EMG, I think it is a great example of a winning play by a good player. I’d like to think I could make that laydown (and I have in the past), but I’ve also lost plenty of huge pots by failing to go with my gut...

Preflop: EMG middle position. His hand range for limping is rather wide. Given the tighter action at the table, he could have a medium pair, suited connectors, big cards, etc. In this case, he has AQ, which is an interesting play. Since he had been playing tight, limp-calling a moderate raise disguises the strength of his hand. In addition, in multi-way pots, a player can get away cheap on a flop that misses. Or, in the case of a raise and a big reraise, EMG can just throw his hand away rather than play a huge pot in middle position with AQ. Dooley has an okay hand with KJ offsuit. It is playable, but in position, he’s fine to pop it up to $2.50. Given his tighter image, he has a chance to scoop a quick $1.25 without a fight.

Fat Tony comes over the top for all of his chips on the short stack with AJ. I’m fine with this play. He is very likely to have the best hand right now. He is hoping for 2 live cards or a race against only 1 of the 2 remaining players. In this case, he is a 3:1 dog to EMG, but is a 3:1 favorite to Bob. EMG smooth calls a pretty large reraise after a limp. Bob should be suspicious about this play, but calling with 3.5:1 pot odds with big cards is an okay play here. The main pot is about $24.50, and EMG and Bob will play on the side.

The Flop: This is a scary flop for any hand that doesn’t hold a club. Even though Bob has an up-and-down straight draw, he could easily be beaten by a made flush/straight flush, the J of clubs is freerolling against him, and QJ has a made straight. EMG checks, so Bob wants to isolate for the main pot. His $10 bet is a little small, but he’s probing for information. He’s asking EMG, “Do you have a made hand or a big flush draw?”. EMG flat calls the raise, which probably says, “Yes, I have a big flush draw or a J.” The side pot is now $20, with the total pot around $44.50.

The Turn: Good news! You hit your straight with the Q. If EMG has a lone J, you are now crushing him with the nut straight. The Q is also not a club, meaning your opponent has not made a flush if he had the Ac or Kc. If I’m Bob, I feel pretty good about my situation. In a somewhat surprising move, EMG goes all in! You immediately have to replay the hand in your head. He limp-calls preflop, check-calls a decent bet on the flop, then pushes all in on the turn on that board? The likely hand range here: the made nut flush, AJ with a lone club, A-x with the Ac, a small made flush (like the 4c-5c), or KJ with a club. In real life, Bob thought about this for a long time before folding. It was an agonizing decision, and if he saw my cards, he would have instacalled. However, from his perspective, I played this very oddly, and he was completely caught off guard by the play.

The River: With Bob throwing away the best hand (correctly, as I noted), Fat Tony has the made straight, and it holds up for a decent pot. EMG scoops the side pot for a small net gain.

Analysis: Going through the hand from Bob’s perspective after the EMG all in, I have to eliminate the made flush. If EMG had the nut flush, he’d likely check-raise the turn to get all the chips in the middle. If he had a smaller flush, he’d probably fire on the flop and push the turn to protect his hand against a big club draw. If I’m in his shoes, I probably put him on a set of 8's, maybe KJ with the Kc, or maybe a hand like A-10 or A-Q with the Qc. Getting 3:1 on my money, I am getting the right price. I'm almost certainly beating most hands he could have bet that way with. Folding is not the right play there mathematically unless I am definitive that he has a made flush. It is a ballsy play by EMG, and I let him off the hook. Regardless, I (Bob) definitely put it in my memory bank for the future.

From my perspective (as EMG), I read physical weakness in Bob when he called Fat Tony’s all in behind me pre-flop. Even so, I checked a scary board on the flop, hoping to get a free draw at my flush. I expected a bet from Bob, but I read definite uncertainty in the way he bet that $10 on the flop. I flat called with pot odds to hit my flush and with an idea that I could push all in on the turn and probably take the side pot. I probably should have went with my read and reraised there (representing a made flush) and taken it down. I played a little scared, and it could have cost me dearly. The Q was actually a bad card for me because it made my opponent's hand and strengthened my own. My read was that Bob had J-10 with no clubs. I determined that I was about 80% likely to take the side pot right there with a shove, and I and might even be ahead of Fat Tony for the main pot. If I’m wrong, I still think I have the biggest club out there, so I have up to 9 outs on a redraw on the river.

Overall, that is a scary, scary board. It takes heart to fire out there to begin with, and it takes a ton of heart and discipline to make a fold like that. ~~Hats off to Bob for playing well. Even though it turns out he didn’t make a correct decision based on the results, he made a read and trusted it. That is the important thing to take away here.~~ Edit: In reading comments from others, Bob likely didn't make the best play. With 3:1 pot odds, he pretty much has to call.

Overplaying QQ: Another Case Study

2009-02-12T17:13:00.000-08:00

Let me start off by saying that I am a huge fan of QQ. Not only is it hot girl-on-girl action, it is a hugely powerful hand that can win you a big pot in NLHE. At the same time, it is beatable, and I have lost a lot of money with the hand. By sheer coincidence, Hulk busted early in a SNG tournament just yesterday by overplaying the hand. If played properly and in the right situations, QQ can do a lot for you. However, this situation last night is a clear case of overplaying the hand. It cost "Orange" his entire stack and may have caused him to tilt away more cash later.

Preflop: As you can see in the graphic above, Orange raised to $3 UTG. Not a typical play by some standards, but in our 25/50 cent game, raised go from $2 preflop to $5 or even $6 depending on the number of players in the pot. By raising, Orange is trying to limit the chances of marginal hands calling (and beating him). He would prefer to play this hand heads up. The loose-aggressive Pinata calls, and the tight-aggressive (but also tricky) EMG raises to $10.25. With action folded back around, you have 2 options because you're almost certainly not folding. You have significant set equity at the very least. You could also reraise if you put your opponent on a move. The fact that EMG reraised here should set off warning signals for Orange. While EMG will call preflop with a wide range of hands, why would he reraise preflop with 2 players already in the pot and field behind him and 5 players left to act? The hand range is small. AA, KK, QQ, maybe JJ, and maybe AK suited. QQ is unlikely, so you have to put him on AA or KK here. In this case, Orange smooth calls, a play that I agree with. There's no need to pot commit yourself with QQ against 1 tighter-aggressive opponent with a loose-aggressive player behind. Pinata also calls, but he's not getting reraised and can see a flop with a pot of $31.50 for $7.25 more, plus plenty of implied odds with some bigger stacks out there.

The Flop: Obviously, the flop missed you, but you have a big pair. The likelihood is that the flop missed EMG, but Pinata has to be watched. He could have flopped a straight draw, a set, or even 2 pair. In my opinion, you have to bet to see where you're at. Going for 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot or so is the best way to go. If you have the best hand and your opponent has AK or JJ/10's, you build the pot with a huge edge. You also get to read physical tells when your opponents think it through, and if you get reraised big, you can fold. Even if you get flat called by 1 or both opponents, you have 2 outs for a set, so there are implied odds. In this case, Orange tries to buy the pot with a $25 bet. I don't see this as a good EV play. You're likely only getting called by hands that are beating you, and if someone has a draw or a smallish pair, they're probably not calling. You're also pot committed with only $19.75 behind. Given the action, a huge overbet into 2 opponents, including a reraiser.

The Result: Here, Pinata folds (he was probably check-folding anyway), and EMG goes all in over the top. In this case, you have to know you're beat. In a tournament, you have to call here with the size of the pot. In a cash game, you can just fold and reload. No need to throw good money after bad. Orange calls with his QQ and EMG has KK. EMG rakes in a giant pot, Orange has to reload anyway.

Analysis: Most of what needs to be said here has already been said. Orange played way too first level and overbet his hand without a clear value proposition. When I am playing my best (and I definitely wasn't last night), I try to put my opponent on a hand range based on history, the betting action, and physical tells, then I try to plan out the hand in my head. There is also no shame in giving up a big pair or a made hand if you really think you're beat. As Mike Caro says, "Poker players get paid to make the right decisions. Money you don't lose needlessly is money won." No hand is unbeatable, especially on that kind of flop. Poker is about people more than anything else, and you have to get to that second level (what does my opponent have?) in order to make money consistently. Orange is normally better than that, but we all have blowups. I've been there, and I know that he will remember how he felt when he saw those Cowboys, and he'll learn and improve.

2/11/09 Lunch Money Game: A Tighter Game, I Play Badly and Win

2009-02-12T17:00:00.001-08:00

We had no game last week because Fat Tony was busy moving out of his slum apartment that lacked heat, electricity, and self respect. His new digs are much nicer, and I'm glad he and his future Mrs. were able to find the place and get in there. It was everyone's first game at the new crib. In attendance were myself, Guido, NJM, Eman, "Bob", Fat Tony, Orange, Pinata, and Lady Omaha (back for the first time in about 7 months following some service time overseas). Without BMRK and MH62 at the game, the action was much tighter. There were fewer straddles, not too many reraises preflop, and we didn't see quite as much money flying around. Still, with Guido and Pinata there, anything was possible!

Point of clarification: "Bob" was a whiny crybaby about the fact that I used his last name in other blog entries. As such, I decided to name him "Bob", which is his wife's name... I'm not even kidding.

There were a lot of really interesting hands played last night. I said this many times, and I mean it: I played terribly. Easily my worst live session at the Lunch Money Game in 2009, and probably my worst in 6-8 months. I was playing way too first level, not making reads, missing bets and opportunities to bluff, and I was costing myself money. If it wasn't for immense luck (namely picking up premium hands and getting paid for them), I would have lost my buyins and been on my way. I was up about $25 early, lost and had to buy up, then I zoomed up $80 total thanks to a big KK vs. QQ showdown (more on this later). I had a reawakening and felt like I was playing much better, but I lost some larger pots and was back down to $90 total (on an $80 buyin). Towards the end of the night, I made a great read and won a monster $160+ pot from Pinata.

I expect to post information and analysis on up to 7 hands from last night. Because of how badly I was playing early and how lucky I got late, I seem to be involved in a lot of them. You'll also get to read about the worst side deal made in poker history... which also involved me metaphorically fisting myself out of anywhere up to $40 profit on a single hand.

Breaking the Rules: Playing When Unfocused

2009-02-11T19:01:00.000-08:00

I woke up this morning (that's as good as this story gets) with to the best of knowledge was a small creature with a sledgehammer smashing the insides of my head. It was bad enough to call out of the office, since focusing wasn't gonna be my strong suit today and the potential for self inflicted pain at work was high. So I got the bright idea to try a couple of sit & goes, and try to get my mind off of the pain. What followed was the throwing away of the modest profit that I had earned in three sit & goes, culminating in this ridiculously simplistic misplay at the end of the 3rd:

It starts out well enough, a standard under the gun raise to 150, and my decision to flat call there was an attempt to not race so early in the tournament. I thought about the raise, but I didn't want to get over involved with pocket Queens when it's very possible that this guy's raising in that position with Ace King and a raise will induce him to shove.
The raise behind me should have set off all kinds of bells and whistles but instead I decide he's just trying to squeeze with his 2nd place stack (a horrible conclusion) and decide to do EXACTLY what I didn't want to do ... get over involved with pocket Queens this early in a tournament when there's so much play left. I guess the good news is that it's only a $5+.50 sit & go, but for this day, I break my rule by playing when I can't stay focused and go out like a Mexican Clydesdale.

Just Call Me 'Gefilte Fish'...

2009-02-10T06:14:00.000-08:00

At the Lunch Money Game (like many home games), we tend to give each other table nicknames based on stories, moments, jokes, etc. From Bad Touch, Donkey Kong, Pinata, Guido, Hulk, Mr. Primetime, Sloppy Floppy, the Unabrower, Shrek, BMRK (Blind Master River King) we have a lot of things going on. When you get a bunch of jack-holes in a room together looking to have a good time, you’re bound to get some funny stuff going on.

Regardless, I was talking with MH6-2 the other day about a dealing gig he had at a local synagogue. He dealt craps and poker at a non-profit event to earn some poker money (which he’ll probably lose to me on a vicious suckout… ha). He was mentioning how the people at the event really had no idea what they were doing, but they acted like they knew it all. He claimed that “they were really just a bunch of fish…”. Of course, I asked if they were actually Gefilte Fish because they were Jewish. He found this endlessly funny, so we agreed that my new table nickname would be Gefilte Fish because of how “bad” I’ve been playing lately. So I’ve got that going for me… which is nice…

Took a Break, Ready to Roll

2009-02-09T07:18:00.000-08:00

After a week where I started to run bad and probably started to play bad, I decided to take a short hiatus from any poker at all. This was aided by a Lunch Money Game vacation because Fat Tony had to move… again… Anyway, I didn’t play for 5 days after pretty much playing 5-7 days a week for 4-5 months. I almost logged in a few times to Full Tilt or Cake, but I did not play any hands for the work week. It was good to get away from trying to grind it out at these microstakes, and I worked on clearing my head and making sure I was playing my best game.

That’s not to say that I was completely removed from working on my poker skills. I bought Collin Moshman’s Sit N Go Strategy book via Amazon. I learned of this book listening to Mediocre Poker on 106.7 WJFK, a local talk station. The hosts had him on as a guest, and he discussed his background, rise to prominence and some basics to his overall thinking about the game. His interview impressed me enough to invest $15 in his book. It is published by 2 + 2, so the format echoes Harrington on Hold ‘Em, a series of 3 excellent books about tournament strategy from a former WSOP Main Event champ. I am currently about 40% through the book, and there are some excellent tips in there for handling situations early and middle of the way though Sit N Go’s. If you are a beginner, the book might be a little over your head, but if you can grasp basic strategy and are looking to improve your play in Sit N Go’s, it’s a great investment.

I logged in Friday night for the first time, and I played 4 SNG’s. I finished up about $30 in 45 minutes, winning 2 SNG’s, placing second once, and bubbling in 3^rd in the other. Not a bad start for getting back into it, but I want to get back to playing 5-7 days a week again. Once my roll is in a place where I have a total profit of 15 buy-ins for 5/10 cent ($150 total), I’m going to switch over to play cash games. Until then, I’m going to grind it out with the $5 SNG’s and see what happens.

EMHD #3, 1/31/09. Final Table Recap

2009-02-04T09:51:00.000-08:00

This past Saturday, we held EMHD #3, which drew a record # of participants (26) and buy-ins/rebuys (66). Thanks to everyone’s contributions to the pool in this tournament and the first two, we have officially eclipsed the $2,500 needed to pay first prize (1 $1,500 buy-in to a WSOP event, $500 for airfare, and $500 for hotel stay), and the money for second prize is building up. It is conceivable that we could send 2 or maybe even 3 people to Vegas during this year’s World Series.

Anyway, the final table for this event included main-stays Jocko (2 final tables) Julio (3), MH62 (2), Justin (2 for 2), and Fat Tony (2 for 2 as a proxy). Tony was playing for DMT, who was in Pittsburgh to celebrate the eventual Steelers Super Bowl win. Also at the final table was newcomer James, Faith, Lesley, and myself. Final table bubble boy was Harry (the EMHD 1 winner). I was in Seat 1, followed by Lesley, Fat Tony, Faith, Justin, Julio, Jocko, MH62, then James in Seat #9. The short stacks: Lesley, Jocko. The medium stacks: EMG, Justin, MH62. The larger stacks: James, Fat Tony, Faith, and Julio.

Jocko was first to go out, having to shove on the microstack. I cannot recall who got the kill, but Jocko finished 9^th. Play continued, with Faith driving a lot of the action with large preflop raises that stole the blinds. Many of the players had less than $20k, so she did well with the big stack to raise to $8k-12k preflop. Lesley got whittled down by a combination of bad cards and lack of aggression. She and MH62 were eliminated by James a short while later in the same hand. Lesley was in the BB with 8-2 and was essentially pot committed due to her stack size. MH62 raised it up significantly with AJ, and James called with AK, followed by Lesley’s shove. There was an A and a 2 on the flop. MH62 bet out, and James raised. I’m not sure if MH62 was committed to that pot, but he must have thought so, because he pushed all in, and was quickly called by James. No one improved, so James KO’d 2 players and became a huge stack. In terms of the push with AJ, I really don’t like it. I have made that mistake countless times in tournaments. James is a tight player, so what is he calling your raise with? You might be best, but if you’re reraised, you’re probably no good…

Later on, I had my double-up through Julio (who became the short stack with Justin), then my KO by Fat Tony (which I’m sick of talking about… haha). I finished 6^th, and Julio busted in 5^th. That meant Justin (back to back cashes), Tony (back to back cashes as a proxy), Faith, and James were the Final 4. Justin was the extreme short stack, Faith was strong, and Tony and James were sitting on around 90k-100k in chips each. As I mentioned, Tony was playing aggressively, raising many pots. Specifically, he stole Faith’s BB 6-10 times, which I doubt she appreciated. Soon after the bubble burst, Tony raised on the button with 6c-7c, and Justin reraised all-in for like 6k more with AK, and Tony had to call. Tony flopped a flush draw and turned his flush to eliminate Justin in 4^th. Another beat in a tournament full of outdraws and suckouts (10’s lost 4x, Shawn got busted with JJ against A-3, I lost a hand with Q’s, plus the 2 AK losses).

Down to 3, Tony continued his assault on the blinds, but Faith really started playing back against him, shoving all in over the top of his raises several times to take down some nice pots. James also sprung into action as the blinds climbed. Tony was by far the most active, but he got into some trouble when he raised preflop with KJ (a fine play 3-handed) and got called by James (who held J-10). They both flopped a J on the flop. James check-called Tony's raise, then turned an up and down straight draw, and doubled up when he hit his straight on the river. Tony was essentially crippled, but he was able to battle back from the short stack 2 or 3 times. Finally, with the blinds about to go up to 7,500/15,000 and the players pretty much even in chips, Faith, Tony, and James agreed to a 3-way chop of points and cash for 1^st-3^rd. The result: $915 each.

It really was a good and exciting final table, which was preceded by a pretty tough tournament field. The new kids on the block (including Dan H, who busted in 14^th) and the grizzled veterans really make these tournament fields difficult to navigate. Surely EMHD #4 on February 21 will be a great event. I cannot be there, so I will depend on The Hulk to provide a report.

Officially Not My Week...

2009-02-01T11:17:00.000-08:00

Okay, so in the last week, I have taken the beat described in the last post to get knocked out on the bubble. Here are some other beats I have taken:

I am in the BB with Q-10 and check my option. The flop comes Q-10-2. I check-call a pot-sized bet. The turn is a 7. I bet out and get raised all in. I call. My opponent has 7-2. The river is a 7 for a boat.

I am in the BB with 6-8. I check my option. The flop comes 5-7-9, so I have a made straight. I check, someone bets 3x the size of the pot, so I go all in, hoping for 2 pair. Even better, the player has the A-5 of clubs for 1 pair and a backdoor flush. Runner-runner flush, and I lose my stack.

I raise with 7's and get called by 2 players. The flop comes out 7-5-4 rainbow. Someone bets out. I call, the other player folds. The turn is an A. The player bets out, I go all in, he calls. The guy has K-6 suited for an up and down straight draw and rivers a 3 for a straight.

I am in late position against a new player. I have Q's. The new player raises to $.40. I flat call to see a flop. The flop comes K-10-3, rainbow. The new player just shoves. I think about it, and I decide he's full of it. I call. He has A-Q for an inside draw. He rivers a J for Broadway.

Note: The new player turns out to be a human ATM. For him, any pair on a board warrants an all in. He is also lucky, outcatching JJ with A-5, etc. I have a pretty good read on him.

I pick up 10's in second position. The turbo-donk pushes all in UTG. I call with 10's. The button calls with AK. The turbo donk has Q-9 of diamonds. The flop comes 10-5-2, 2 diamonds. The turn is a blank, and the river is a 3d. Turbo donk takes my stack and doubles through AK. I scream in anger.

Don't know what more I can do. I'm getting my money in really good, and my luck is just terrible right now. I'm trying to stay vigilant and keep playing my game. It's just hard to remain positive and focused when these hits keep coming.

EMHD #3: Bubble Boy

2009-01-31T22:14:00.001-08:00

I took one of the worst beats of my life to get bounced from EMHD #3 in 6th place (2 out of the money). I had recently doubled up through Julio with AQ over A-8 (I think that was the hand) to about $34,000 or $35,000 in chips. Blinds were $2k/$4k, and I'm in the SB with Fat Tony in the BB. It's folded around to me, and I pick up Ad/Kd and raise to $10k. Fat Tony (who had been playing super aggressive, especially for him) came over the top for all my chips. After rechecking my cards and assuring myself that I have to call (not necessarily pot committed, but I only have 5 BB's left, and I have a top 14 hand), I called. Fat Tony had As/5c.

The flop: Qs-Qc-2s. I'm still looking good, but I'm not loving my position.

The turn: Ks. Not a great card for me. While Tony loses the 5d and 5h as outs to win, he gains the 9 remaining spades as outs. I'm about 81% to win the pot, but I'm not feeling awesome.

The river: 3s. Fat Tony scoops the pot with the nut flush. I'm in shock.

Obviously, if Tony knows what I have, he maybe flat calls there at best, but given the stack sizes and the situation, it was a play that he thought he could make and maybe even be ahead if I'm playing KQ/KJ. I'm still a bit in shock that it went down that way, but it is what it is. I really think that given the situation and my stack size, plus how well I think I was playing, that if I had won that pot, I would have had a really strong chance to place very highly in the tournament. Maybe with the big stack, I really could have done some damage and won the thing. We'll never know...

TurkeyNerves

2009-01-31T12:14:00.001-08:00

At the pre-game event number 3 of the EMHD, BMRK explained that he got nervous in tournaments. EMG exclaimed "Turkey Nerrrrrvous!"

Remember: When you're playing poker, it's just a game. No need to come down with a bad case of the TurkeyNERRRRRVES!

No Rakeback = No More Full Tilt?

2009-01-29T07:10:00.000-08:00

Being a bit of a novice online player, I'm always looking to learn new things about how to grow my bankroll. I am an avid listener of Mediocre Poker Radio, which plays on 106.7 WJFK on Sunday nights. If you miss the show, you can always catch podcasts on the Mediocre Poker site. The Hulk or myself will discuss the merits of this show another time, but one thing that EB (the co-host) talks about constantly is rakeback. Listening to the most recent podcast, one of the guests tauted the absolute critical need for every grinder out there to have rakeback. Of course, I had always wondered what it was, but I had never looked into this type of service. Here's what I learned:

Rakeback is a refund of the "rake" that you pay to play any cash game or tournament. Depending on the host site and the rakeback site, you can earn anywhere from 25%-35% in refunds if you use any of these providers. The rakeback provider tracks your play at whatever game/stake, then will refund the set % of the raked amount back into your account on a monthly basis.
Cash players pay more rake than tournament players because pretty much every hand that sees a flop is "raked" a set percentage. As such, cash players are entitled to more rakeback.
Cash players have an added bonus here because they not only get the refund on pots they play/win, but they also receive the same rate on raked hands that they do not play. Essentially, if you are dealt cards, you are eligible to receive rakeback for that pot.
According to Guido, who is a very wise man, if you generate a large volume of hands seen and are a break-even player, you can build your bankroll via rakeback alone. (Of course, being a winning player is also helpful).
For more info, I trust this site.

I did a brief calculation based on my tournament and cash play since I rebought back in August 2008. I estimate that I cost myself (and my roll) about $75 in rakeback rewards (even playing at 5/10 cent and $1-$5 tournaments), and it pisses me off that I wasn't aware enough to take advantage of this sooner.

The problem here is that Full Tilt is notoriously stingy about offering rakeback to existing account holders. Many of the sites I looked into would not submit a request for my account. However, www.raketherake.com was willing to handle this on my behalf, but they did not promise any results. Given that I want to build my bankroll, I have to take advantage of every opportunity, both on the table and off. If FT won't help a brother out, I'll have to take my business elsewhere. I'll keep you all updated about what transpires...

Live Hand : Omaha Hi Lo 1/25

2009-01-28T11:36:00.000-08:00

In a previous post EMG told tales from Texas Crint's Game. After he left we played some dealer's choice. There were a few rounds of Hold 'Em , but Omaha, 3 card Omaha, and Pot Limit Omaha 8 or better were added to the menu. This hand happened after I turned into a card rack, and made for the biggest pot I'd played in months:

We were 5 handed, I sat in the little blind, MH62 in the big. Texas Crint was Under the Gun, Julio P was next, and el Pinata had the button and the deck.

Pre Flop: Texas Crint called the 50 cent BB, Julio P folded, Pinata calls on the button, and I complete the blind. MH62 raises pot, making it 2 dollars to go. With Texas Crint and Pinata calling, it seemed to make sense to call with the following hole cards:

Hulk Hole Cards:

The Flop:

This is undoubtedly a good flop for me, I've made the 2nd nut straight, and have redraws to the nut low, and a heart flush. Since I'm acting first this round, I decide to bet pot, 8 dollars after the pre-flop action, and much to my surprise MH62 raises pot, making it another $24 to see the turn. Texas Crint and el Pinata fold moving the action back to me. A more experienced player probably re-raises here, the 2nd nuts, redraw to the wheel for the nut low, and the flush redraw which might be good, or at least block the better flush MH62 could be drawing for might make it elementary ... but I agonize about it. Maybe at another game I can discount 4 7 with a pre-flop raise, but look at the logo of this blog. I'm also without an Ace for the nut low, and MH62 re-raised ME ! EMG's mentioned in other posts that I'm pretty tight, so I'm sure he's strong here, maybe stronger than I want him to be. Ah Ac 4h 7s ? 44 77 ? Both hands run through my mind, but I finally decide to call. Not a strong move, and I hated myself for it at the time, but I know that MH62 isn't afraid to draw, and I want some more information before I commit the rest of my chips. I'm just not able to narrow his hand range down enough for the re-raise, and want to keep some of my stack around for later hands.

The Turn:

Any agony that plagued me after the re-raise passed, and as soon as the 10 of diamonds hit I bet pot, which after my call post-flop was a substantial 72 dollars. It was enough to put MH62 all in, and he called for the 61 dollars left in his stack. It wasn't necessarily the turn card that made me lead out. The card didn't change anything for either of us, but I was relieved to see it not be a heart. With that card not meaning anything, I decided that there really wasn't any way I was folding the hand, so it was time to get it over with. We both showed before the river came and

MH62 showed:

The River:

The River was the Ace of Diamonds. The river not pairing the board gives me the 6 high straight, and Ace to 5 low, allowing me to scoop the 194 dollar pot. If you're up for it, dissect the hand. I believe any errors in the hand were mine, most notably the lack of re-raise after the flop and I'm interested in hearing what the players think.

(Note: After discussion with Pinata and MH62, we still can't narrow down some details like card suit, but the spirit of this hand remains the same. MH62 did not have a flush draw at any point.)

Online Breakthrough?

2009-01-28T08:14:00.000-08:00

In an earlier post, I highlighted some of the changes I had made to my bankroll management and my overall strategy. It had been paying some dividends, but yesterday/last night, I had a run that was based way more around skill than luck. Perhaps it’s the fact that I’m seeing so many online hands (100 SNG tournaments this month alone), plus I’ve been analyzing my own play, but I cashed in 7 of 11 $5 + $.50 tournaments for a profit (post rake) of $45. Sure, it’s a small time effort, but I think I’ve really turned the corner in terms of playing these small stakes tournaments. Here are some of my adjustments:

Peg it early. Trying to peg the entire table within the first 5 hands, then building my image off those reads. My assessment is that bad players (as most of these guys are) want to convey their image to everyone else because they are first level donks and don’t understand higher level thinking. They are almost always playing their hand and not asking themselves what everyone else has. Because of this, I can quickly pinpoint the attack targets, the trap targets, etc., then adjust my play quickly based on how they react to my play.

Very few pot-sized continuation bets. I play a little more loose and much more aggressive in these tournaments than I do live because of the quality of competition and because it works better than tighter play, I’ve found. I realized that I kept getting involved in monster pots where I had to bet all in on the turn to take it down because I was betting too much on the flop. I also found that when I had a monster and bet pot, I wasn’t getting enough callers. So, I adjusted it down and am working to build pots with half-pot bets. In this case, if I get raised (or even mini-raised), I have fold equity or pot-building equity. I can get away from a semibluff or a draw much more easily and with more of my stack intact. By consistently raising a set amount based on blind level (usually a little more than 3x the BB) and then continuation betting 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot on the flop, I’m taking down the same number of pots, but I’m also taking down bigger pots and losing less when I get reraised. I also have very few betting pattern tells.

Making reads. I like to think I have acceptable skills at reading physical tells. Certainly players like Fat Tony, MH62, and Hulk (and I’m sure others) are better than me, but I like to think that I can read betting patterns and decipher what is going on in a hand better than many experienced players. Since there are no physical tells other than the amount of time it takes a player to bet + the betting patterns, it is up to me (or anyone) to determine why the bet was made and what my opponents’ holdings might be. Again, having seen several thousand online hands against some abysmal players, I have been better and better at getting away from hands when I know I’m beat and really making some solid calls. For instance, a few nights ago, I had a flush draw on a board of A-K-7, and bet it, then got reraised all in by a player who had limped on the button. I folded and wrote “you’re A-7 is good for now…”. He flashed A-7. How did I know? Well, the all-in didn’t make sense unless he had A-7 or K-7. Any other hand, and it’s a retarded move. He didn’t seem like a terrible player, so I put him on 2 pair and not wanting to get drawn on. Of course, he sucked all the value out of the hand by pushing, but if I’m stupid enough to call on a draw, he’s a solid favorite…

Not over-raising/over-calling. We all know that bad players play badly at all times, but a short-stacked bad player should never be doubled up just to get the knockout. I was trying to push the action and investing way too much of my stack with marginal edges (or as a 3:1 dog). Likewise, when I was short-stacked, I was pushing all-in before I had to and in early position with weak A’s or medium K’s and getting called down by players in bad spots. By making later position plays with my short stack and not calling significant portions of my stack on all-ins without strong holdings, I maintained my chip lead (or my stack) and was able to get the money in in a better situation. Likewise, I tighten up as the blinds reach the 50/100 and 60/120 level to avoid getting reraised all in and being pot committed. I’ll then change gears when it’s 80/160, 100/200+ when it becomes profitable and less risky again.

Not giving up. I really realized my breakthrough last night around 10 PM. On the first hand of a tournament, I got crippled. I held A-8 and checked in the BB. The flop came A-9-8. I called a small raise from the SB. The turn was a 9, which worried me, but I called a 3/4 pot bet from the same guy. I thought he had a 9 for sure, but I was stubborn and had played against so many bad players, I figured if he had A-9, he would have just gone all in... The river was an 8, giving me the 4^th nuts (behind AA, 99, and A9). He bet out most of my stack, and I (I suppose stupidly) flat called in case he was playing 10-9 or 9-8. He had A-9, and I had 255 chips starting the second hand. I told myself that I was better than everyone else, and there was no excuse why I couldn't still win. I ground it out, got some luck, picked my spots, and I ended up placing second in that tournament. I didn’t just throw my chips in and look to the next SNG. I was determined to make something happen, and I did. I knew that I’m never out of anything as long as I have chips. I can build off that "victory" for the future.

I'm not sure whether I can keep up this high level of play, but I know that I can truly dominate the $5 SNG level on Full Tilt regardless of chip position, position, and stack size. That confidence (as long as it doesn't hinder my risk tolerance) should allow me to really build my roll. I am feeling pretty good today, but I want to string together a week of these results before I can really be sure.

Upcoming Games

2009-01-27T11:40:00.000-08:00

A somewhat action-packed week ahead. Tomorrow we will observe Pinata's departure from the East Coast with a SHOE or HORSE game at Fat Tony's. Expected to be in attendance: Fat Tony, Pinata, Guido, MH62, Hulk, Nate, Dan, and Texas Crint. We're playing $1/$2 with a $.25 ante on the stud games and $.25/$.50 (probably with a $1 straddle much of the time) on the Omaha games. Should be a rip-roaring good time with Pinata stories and perhaps some surprises...

EMHD #3 kicks off Saturday at 3 PM. We're going to celebrate the occasion with a little brunch action and a $20 HORSE tournament. Winner gets bought in to the tournament. Expected participants: Hulk, MH62, Dan, Jocko, Pinata, Shawn, and I. Should be fun and interesting.

Lots more entries to come as we bet, trap, fold, and bluff our way along!

Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 2 of 2)

2009-01-26T11:26:00.000-08:00

In Part 1 of this Story EMG examined the following hand from the point of view of djp4516, the player who's pocket aces were cracked in a large pot near the very end of the tournament. EMG and I thought it might be fun to examine the hand from the point of view of pireslousa and that's what I'm gonna try to do

Larger Version

Pre Flop: I've done as much thinking as I can about this mini raise to 2k. I don't like it. I know that professionals like Daniel Negreanu say that a min-raise has its place, but as I understand it he advocates this when the blinds are significant amounts of the stacks and the size of the stacks at this table certainly don't fall into that criteria. I'd have rather pireslousa made a raise to 3500 - 4500, but I can imagine a few thought processes that would lead to this action:

Really Tight table - They'll toss anything if they're not willing to play a big pot with me. If the respect my stack, they'll leave, and if any of the small stacks shove, I'm not so invested that I can't leave, or if I really think they'll shove with hands like AK, I'll race for up to 12k.
Scared of Jacks - Maybe this stands on its own, maybe in combination with scenario 1, the min raise is just enough to say I'm interested in this hand, but let the other players at the table make the next move and let me see where I fit in and gauge my comfort level.

Regardless, the call after the raise from djp4516 and the shove of k9luvr's short stack make it at the very least acceptable. Folding here isn't a bad play either, not wanting to get mixed up in a three way pot with JJ is understandable, but if you're gunnin' for the top prize, the call gets you into a pot that can put you in really nice shape, especially since I don't think the all-in was enough to allow a re-raise if flat called.

Post Flop: This is not the flop JJ was dreaming about, but with 2nd pair and a redraw to a flush, it might be worth the 6k bet into the (fairly) dry side-pot to isolate against that short stack. The more I've thought about it the more I like the bet. It represents about 1/5th of the pot, and a little less than 1/4th of djp4516's stack. It's just enough that it should eliminate the flat call from djp4516's arsenal and if pireslousa get raised here, folding leaves him 24k in chips at 1k/2k blinds puts him in 3rd or 4th place at that table, not optimal, but in good shape to make the money. The call, however is something I can't believe happened. djp4516's shove should make pireslousa hit the fold button. The only defense of pirelousa's is the pot odds. If I do it right, there's about 63k in the pot, the call for about 20k makes it just over 3 to 1, close enough for the flush redraw if it's good, add two more outs for the other Jacks in the deck and it's a decent price ... but that's cash game talk and I don't think you can even believe your flush would be good if it got there in that spot. In the late stages of a tournament, when you're one big mistake from zero, I think it's a reckless call. Let me know in the comments what I'm wrong about.

Texas Crint Hosts a Game, 1/25

2009-01-26T07:59:00.000-08:00

Played a lunch money-esque game at Texas Crint’s house last night from 6 PM – 8:45 PM (give or take). In attendance during my session were Texas Crint, MH62, Julio, Pinata, and Big John. It was a 6-handed game, so starting hand values went up, obviously. I was decently card dead for a lot of the time, and I didn’t play well. I made a theoretically bad laydown to Pinata, who pushed all in on a board of J-7-2 after raising preflop, and I had Turkey Nerd (7-4). It was a $17 raise into a $10 pot, and I tanked for a while, then folded, putting him on A-7/K-7, meaning I had 3 outs at best. He showed the bluff with 10-5. Not sure if I should have made that play, but I likely had outs if I had. Later, Texas Crint caught a 3 outer on my J-10 with J-2, and I paid him off on the river (read it like a busted flush draw, which was realistic given the way the hand was played). I later made a stupid all in call of $14 against Pinata, who had flopped a boat. After that, I was decently scared and totally card-dead. Not at all a good combination. I technically could have quit, but I wanted to grind through it. I didn't take unnecessary risks, which I am happy about... I saw 1 pocket pair and zero double suited hands in 12 Omahahands. I think I saw only 2 suited hands total in my Omaha time, which is quite odd. I played them tight and really didn’t invest much in these weak starting hands, which was good.

Overall, I was stuck $50, which is not terrible, but I missed a few bets and should have called Pinata's all in early and not called that last $14 later. Given my cards, I estimate that I should have been stuck about $20, but I played well below my best for the last hour, and that led to the poor result. Chalk up $30 in losses to bad play and $20 in losses to variance.

Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 1 of 2)

2009-01-23T13:13:00.000-08:00

See the video below. Here is a large version. This hand history was presented to us from a friend on a non-poker message board (in the poker thread). This is from the final stages of a $10 + $1 90 man deep stack tournament on an unnamed online site. There are 15 players left, and the top 9 get paid.First place earns roughly $325. Our “hero” has AA in late position with 7 people at the table…

Preflop: I like the raise there. Obviously, you’re reraising preflop (raised or not) with AA here. The size of the bet is about right to me. You’re hoping that everyone folds, and you take down a $4k pot. Worst case, you’re looking at an all-in from the baby stack or a reraise from an underpair, then you get it all in as a 4:1 fave. The BB goes all in, which has to be a worry. Why put your entire tournament on the line when there’s a raise and a reraise? Sure, you have AA, but that has to be a concern. Here, the UTG miniraiser flat-calls. Personally, I can’t stand a mini-raise at any point in any NL game. Either make a man-sized raise, call, or fold… However, the guy just flat calls with 3:1 odds. You have to immediately put him on a range of hands. I probably focus in on AK suited, KK, QQ, maybe JJ or 10’s. I don’t see most players risking that much with anything less, especially at a $10 buy-in. You have to figure that the dead money is already out at this point. You can probably discount KK because KK probably reraises all in there to isolate. In lower limits, people also overvalue AK, so AK probably reraises all in.

The Flop: Horrible flop here. You have no hearts, and it’s come Q-10-4, all hearts. If you have the guy on a pair from 8’s-Q’s, there’s a decent likelihood that he hit a set there. If he just has AK, he could have a made nut flush or the Ah/Kh, meaning you need a runner-runner boat to win. He bets out at this flop. The fact that he's betting into you after you showed so much strength preflop says 1 of 3 things: 1) "I have a set of Q's or 10’s, back off". 2) I have a made flush. Go away." or 3) "I have an overpair and a heart. Back off." Given the size of the bet (1/6 of the pot), you almost have to put him on the nut flush (AhKh, maybe AhJh. Why else would he value bet? Worst case, he has a set, meaning you have 2 outs at best to win (or runner-runner for a full house). Of all the hands he could have, the best case scenario is AQ with the Ah.

The Push: I personally think you have to fold and take your $26k (26 BB’s) and wait for another spot. In fact, I probably check it down unless I hit running boat cards. Instead, the “Hero” came over the top for $26k total. Really not the right play. As I mentioned, you have 26 BB’s left, and you’re still healthy. You have enough chips to play 16-18 rounds. You’re also betting $26k to win $6k if he folds, and you’re still up against the all-in player. I’m not shocked that the Hero got called, but the real amazement on my end is that he got called by JJ with the Jh. While the push was the wrong decision, I have no idea why the opponent bet or the called there. The Hulk will examine the hand from the viewpoint of the JJ player.

Enter The Hulk

2009-01-23T11:38:00.000-08:00

Since MH62 can’t quite figure out THE BLOGSPOT (credit to Fat Tony for the reference), I have recruited The Hulk to discuss, post, and make general merriment on the site. He gave us the first version of Turkey Nerd history, and his understanding of the game (both online and live cash/tournament) is excellent. I look forward to his contributions. Likewise, if Mr. Primetime chooses to contribute, that would be beautimus!

What the fahk is "The Facebook"?

2009-01-23T09:37:00.000-08:00

As you can imagine, MH62 is an old bastard. He was supposed to be a contributor to this blog with his vast knowledge of local home games, pub poker, and his unique philosophy on life. However, it is quite obvious that he is an elderly curmudgeon who is clearly set in his ways. He can comment on the blog (with help from me to even sign in), but he can't be bothered to post. What a d-bag! It's not like he has anything better to do other than iron and knit in his yenta sewing circles!

Anyway, I read this Onion article a few weeks back, and it amused me because my parents (who are right around 60 years old) act in a similar way. Before the last EMHD event, Shrek and I were teasing MH62 about his horrific Facebook picture (picture not shown to protect the innocent). MH62 got all huffy and started yelling, “I don’t even know how to use THE FACEBOOK!!!” I’m not sure what THE Facebook is, but Facebook is a very popular social networking site used by many people around the world. Congrats! You are officially as technologically retarded as a 60 year old Jewish couple who raised me! Must feel good... What's that? I hear the oven timer going off. Your souflette is done! Chop chop, Mr. Mom!

Perhaps you had to be there, but if you know MH62, you’re sure to get a kick out of it. While I’m on the topic of things MH62 says, this t-shirt is awesome!

Mr. Prime Time!!!

2009-01-23T08:56:00.000-08:00

It turns out that not only is MH62 a poker sensation, he is also an internet sensation. We have video evidence!

EMHD #2, 1/17/09

2009-01-22T06:51:00.001-08:00

After missing the first EMHD tournament, I was excited to enter my first event of the series this past Saturday. I was feeling pretty good, wearing my Turkey Nerd t-shirt and Donkey Punch hoodie. I felt ready to play, and we drew a pretty nice field of 24 people. After the rake for the main prize, the tournament paid 4 places with a total pool of $1,900. Pretty nice pot. Overall, newcomer Justin chopped first/second with Fat Tony at a 60/40 rate (Justin had Tony out-chipped 2:1), Jim S finished third, DMT fourth, with My Fair Lady Terri in her Steelers garb on the bubble. In terms of other usual characters: Big John made the final table on an extreme short stack and finished 8th, MH62 placed 13th, Texas Crint 14th, I got 17th, and Shawn exited first (24th place). I do want to note that Tony was a proxy for Klinkerbell, so Klinker now is the only player to earn points at both EMHD events. Overall standings right now:

1. Harry G: 1,320 points
2. Klinkerbell: 1,116 points
3. Justin F.: 1,080 points
4. MH62: 660 points
5. Jim S.: 360 points
6. Julio: 264 points
7. DMT: 240 points

Final Table Analysis: Once Julio went out, it really was a very tight final table. Big John, Fat Tony, DMT, Terri, Jim, and Jocko are tight players to begin with, and Justin wasn’t showing a whole lot of waggle. Joe, who is normally a hyper-aggressive preflop player, stopped playing hands. He complained afterwards that he just had no cards. Against a tight group of players, it is in your best interest to play more aggressive, so I don’t buy that excuse. In my opinion, Joe and Terri went like Broomcorn’s Uncle (ante’d to death). Terri especially did not take advantage of her gigantic chip stack. I know for a fact that she folded UTG with 99 in a 6-handed game because she didn’t want to get reraised. It turned out on that hand that Jocko and Tony clashed head to head, and Fat Tony emerged victorious with trip 8’s, but there’s no reason to not make a play there with a medium or premium pair. If you’re not playing to win, you’re probably not going to. When it got down to 6 players, the blinds eventually caught up to everyone. Even at that point, a “big stack” only had 12-14 BB’s, meaning that blind stealing was important at the right time. I saw way too little aggression from everyone. With the way the tournament was structured, it became a card-catching contest. Terri and Joe let themselves become microstacked. Joe went out with KJ offsuit and got killed by Jim, and Terri was way short stacked with JJ and ran into Dawn’s AA on the bubble.

Now that everyone had cashed, the play loosened up some, but I really saw no raising or reraising from the generally tight group. With the blinds up to 1,000/2,000 and more, it became a card-catching contest. Justin was the beneficiary, hitting AA and getting paid with big pots twice. I do note that Fat Tony really started attacking Jim and Dawn’s BB 4-handed, and that aggression helped him build enough of a stack to stay ahead of the curve. I really would have preferred to see one of the players in the final 6 take a table captain role and really push people around, but no one did. In the end, it became a battle of variance. Tony probably played the strongest of anyone at that table, and Justin had the best luck with hands at the right time. That’s why they were the big winners.

Online Analysis to Date

2009-01-22T06:29:00.001-08:00

I have been playing a decent amount of online poker using Full Tilt. My goal is to turn a $100 bankroll investment into $1000 by December. I started off pretty strong, raking in $100 in my first month playing 5/10 cent NLHE 2 and 3 tables at a time. I was playing a more tight-solid game at that point, targeting weak players, keeping pots small, playing pots for value. However, I was having trouble playing against hyper-aggressive players for whatever reason. I would get impatient and would call all-ins with just flush draws or a weak A. It was a dumb strategy, and I started to backslide. Stupidly, instead of just shifting my strategy or table selecting better, I decided to switch and play Pot Limit Omaha (PLO) at the 5/10 cent levels. This was disastrous to my bankroll. I went from a + $80 month my first month to below my initial $100 in bankroll.

Looking back, I was playing pretty much every double-suited hands, big pairs, and suited and connecting hands. While I may have overvalued some of my hands preflop, I was also not accounting for the type of game I would encounter. It is essentially impossible to bluff at this level. Since the variance can be so high, pretty much everyone plays every pot, and you need the stone nuts to even bet. Even when you have the best hand, things swing back and forth. I flopped quads over quads twice and won big pots, only to flop a full house the next pot and lose to quads. At a max $10 buy-in per table, you basically have enough in your stack to play 1 monster pot, so you’re very variance dependent. I like to semibluff my draws (the only way to play PLO), but against 4-5 other players, it is very tough to know where you’re at from street to street.

After getting cracked for pretty much all of my profits that I ground out in Hold Em, I gave up and realized that I really didn’t have the roll right now to play cash the way I want to play. I had been playing some Sit N Go’s (SNG), with pretty solid results (expected profit of $3.50 per 6 max SNG). I decided to rebuild my roll by multitabling $5 6 max SNG’s exclusively. In the past 2 weeks, I’m earning about $2 profit per match. I know that I am significantly better than my competition, so I use that advantage, plus I am being much more aggressive preflop early in tournaments. I set an aggressive image early and tend to get my big hands paid off. For instance, last night I called a raised with 10-7 suited, flopped 2 pair against JJ and doubled up. The very next hand, I picked up QQ and pumped it up again, and got reraised all-in by K-10 (hand of death). I instacalled and busted the guy. All of a sudden, I’m sitting with $5k in chips with 4 players left, and I can afford to sit back and pick spots. In general, I peg the table within the first 7-10 hands, and I pick on the ones who I can pick on, and value bet the heck out of every pot. I also play the short stack well, so even if I have to fold on a scary board, I’m still in every tournament. I’ve gone from 300 chips early to winning the thing by not getting desperate.

At the same time, one big adjustment that I’ve made here (that I almost never do live) is flat calling preflop or checking the BB with AK, particularly if I’ve been playing loose and aggressive. When I hit, I tend to bet out against the aggressor and tend to get met with a reraise, so I get my chips in. Even if the flop is super scary, I just get away from it with a limp. Not overplaying AK has a very high EV for me, particularly with the image that I’ve set.

Overall, I’m back up about $25 over my initial buy ($125 total). It has been a better month with me playing smarter, playing fewer tables, and quitting whenever I feel I’m not playing my best. I’m happy with the result playing the SNG’s, but I want to get my roll up to $200 total, so I can start playing some 5/10 cent NLHE to really build my roll.

Turkey Nerd History, Part I

2009-01-16T08:13:00.000-08:00

o In an effort to edumacate all of you honkeys, crackers, and other assorted racial epithets, I asked around to the Lunch Money Game crew for their version of how the venerable term ‘Turkey Nerd’ came into existence. The first respondent is Big John, who offered this historical gem:

The TurkeyNerd was born in the 'Lunch Money' game. One of the
regulars, The Blind Master River King (BMRK), has a loose style of play that generates huge swings during his sessions.* Generally good natured about the hand's outcome, should he lose the pot, whoever drags the chips to their stack will be derided with such strong language as "you Turkey!" or "Nerd!" thrown in as a bit of a change up.

In the BMRK's absence at one session, he was imitated by the losers of pots. EMG has the best voice imitation, but we all do our best. And as the words came out they were eventually put together. I was card dead that night, losing most of the pots I played, and being very easy to entertain, I spent most of that session either repeating the new compound word or laughing at it in my head. Who holds claim to saying it first ? I think it was me, but it belongs to this group of degenerates now.

There is no real reason that the 4 of diamonds and 7 of clubs is the official TurkeyNerd hand ... when I made the graphic it seemed only right to grab a raggedy starting hand that met the criteria of being
Either a Made Hand ... or a Draw.

* Loose is not the right word, but it's the closest word in the Poker lexicon that I know of. Playing against the BMRK is very similar to playing a human slot machine. He's impossible to read, because he'll refuse to look and won't know his cards at least 1/2 the time. And if you're not betting the nuts, you're bound to have 2nd best.

Hand Histories (I need a straw from all that sucking out...)

2009-01-15T07:19:00.000-08:00

As I mentioned before, I was a bit of a suckout king last night. I hit 3-outers in 3 large hands against better A's, plus my lovely 5-2 rivered straight. See below for some of the highlights. Critique and discussion is welcome!

Early in the session, I picked up AsJc in the BB. Pinata raised it up in early position to $3, and there were 2 callers. I thought about reraising, but I opted to flat call, with the plan of possibly betting or check-raising the flop depending on “texture”. The flop came out A-J-7, rainbow, so I had top 2 pair. I checked, hoping that someone (namely Pinata) had AK, AQ, A-10, or A-7, so I could get it all in as a favorite. My main worry was 77 because it was less likely he spiked the case J or the case A. He bet $12 (pot bet), making the pot about $24, and I had about $35 behind me. I thought for a second, thinking about flat-calling. If I flat-called, I’d have $20-25 behind me, and the pot would be $36, meaning that if a “scare” card came on the turn, I wouldn’t have enough to push him off it. I thought about pushing, and he told me I’d get called. I decided he had AK or AQ and pushed. He had AK. Blanks on the turn/river, and I raked a nice $75-80 pot.
We saw quads last night, though not the easily concealed kind. Essentially, Dooley had raised in early position on every street with a board of A-9-x. The turn and river were both 9’s. The pot was around $25, and he bet $10. Pinata reraised all in for about $18 more. Dooley went into the tank and said out loud, “I think you have the 9 for quads…” For some reason, he ended up flipping a coin (literally) to decide whether to call with his A (aces full of 9’s). He called, and Pinata dragged a nice pot.
About 25 mins later, I got AJ again in middle position. MH6-2, an aggressive player, raised to $3. Wanting to isolate and maybe take down a $4 pot, I reraised to $11. It folded back around to him, and he stared me down. The longer he stared me down, the better I felt that I had the best hand. He is capable of making that raise with suited connectors, KQ, KJ, etc. He is also capable of having a big pair, but I didn’t get that sense. I felt like he was really trying to read me and decide if pushing ($14.75 more) would win the pot or if he was ahead. He did push, and I thought heavily about calling. The pot was $22.75 + his $14.75 for a total of $37.50. I had about 3:1 to call. If I had a better A, I was 3:1 to win. If he had an underpair, I was about 48% to win. If he had a bigger A, I was 1:3 to lose. Given those possibilities, I decided to call. He had AQ, and I caught a J on the river to stack him. Sucky suckout, and I hate doing it to people, but I’ll take the money.
Around 10:15, I got Q-3 of hearts on the button. It was limped around, so I called the 50 cents more with 5 people in the pot. The flop was 4-3-3, 2 diamonds. It was checked around to me, so I checked trying to trap. The turn was a 5 of spades, putting a 3 card straight and 2 flush draws on the board. I felt like maybe I could have the best hand, but I definitely feared a diamond draw or a made straight with 6-7. The pot was only $2.50, but it was raised in early position, and MH6-2 reraised to $6. I put him on a 4-7 or a flush draw, so I flat called. The original raiser folded, making the pot $16.50. The river was a blank. MH bet $10, and I called, hoping my set was good. He had the 6-7 for a nice $36.50 pot.
I caught on Pinata again for a $35 pot with A-9. Caught 2 pair on the flop and check-called, then bet the turn, and rivered a full house and value bet it at $13. He called with AJ (I think), and I showed the boat.
My favorite hand that I played last night was when I had 5-2 of diamonds in mid/late position. There was an UTG raise to $2 (a “mini-raise”), and MH6-2 called. There was one other late position caller, making the starting pot about $8.75. The flop came out K-4-3, with 1 diamond, giving me the up and down straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. The original raiser led out for $6. MH6-2 folded (turned out to be 8’s), and I opted to flat call heads up and in position. The turn was the 8 of diamonds, pissing off MH, but I added a flush draw to my straight. For some reason, the bet was pretty tiny ($8). I felt like he had a big K or maybe a garbage 2 pair, and he was value betting me. I didn’t put him on a flush draw because he led out in early position. I felt if I hit any of my 15 outs (9 diamonds, 3 6’s + 3 A’s), I would get paid. I flat called the $8, making the pot $36. The river was a black A, so no flush, but the nut straight (and very nicely concealed). He bet out $12, and I sat and thought about how much I could raise and get paid. I decided on an $18 reraise ($30 total). If he had a set or a big 2 pair, he’d maybe reraise, and I could get all my money in. If he had a smaller 2 pair or maybe KQ, I would get a call. He had K-4 (2 pair) and called. I dragged a $96 pot.
Sick value check from Pinata against MH6-2. There was a 3-5 on the board, and MH made a comment when calling a $20 bet that he was looking to catch his draw. There were no flushes on the board. A 2 came on the river. MH checked, and Pinata immediately checked behind with 2-pair, stating that MH’s 4-6 was good with a straight. Awesome read.

Live Cash Session, 1/14/09

2009-01-15T07:01:00.000-08:00

Played last night at the “Lunch Money Game”. Some of the usual crowd was there: Fat Tony (the host), Guido, Pinata, MH6-2. We were missing Captain Insane-O (AKA Shrek), Texas Crint, Big John, and the Blind Master River King from the usual crew. I went into the game deciding to be more aggressive and to raise in position and attack the raisers, specifically the more aggressive players like MH, Pinata, and Guido. I played about 50% of my hands and really didn’t lay down any solid starting hands without a raise and a reraise in front of me. Overall, I think I played well, though I didn’t have many premium hands. The best pocket pair I saw all night was 8’s, but it was on a misdeal. I didn’t have AK or AQ, either. I suppose the poker gods repaid my “bad luck” in that regard with some lucky catches. I turned that luck into a $74 profit.

Overall, I think I played well. I don’t think I missed any big betting opportunities, and I used my image of somewhat tight, but tricky to steal some pots. People tend to give me credit for a hand when I bet or check-raise, so I try to mix that stuff up. However, I also vary my play from hand to hand based on how I think people are perceiving me. So, if I think people think I’m playing too fast, and I pick up a big hand, I’ll raise hoping to get reraised or called. Likewise, if I think people consider me very tight, I’ll raise preflop and continuation bet with 4-2. I like to think that I am capable of making moves at any time based on the situation, but I want to get more aggressive in my cash game because I sometimes get too little action on my big hands. If I play a little more aggressive, I think I can win more over the long term while not putting my money in the middle when I know I’m flat beat. I have to trust my reads and not be scared to lose $10 here and there. Last night was Phase I of my plan to play better and more aggressively in 2009, and the results are solid, albeit thanks to some luck. Some hand histories will follow.

I am definitely looking forward to EMHD 2 on Saturday. I think last night was a nice session for me, and I think that I can use my tournament strategy knowledge + basic reading ability and turn it into some cash (and points towards the prize).

EMHD Event #2: Saturday, 1/17/09

2009-01-12T14:42:00.000-08:00

Part of the reason behind his site was to discuss and post updates on the EMHD, which is a project that my co-author, MH62 put together in collaboration with myself and several other home game compadres. EMHD = Either a Made Hand or a Draw, based around another story that my counterpart will post sometime in the future.

Essentially, this is a tournament league where a group of us plays a series of medium stakes buy-in tournements ($100 or so), and we track results and points based on finish and knockouts, etc. Each tournament will rake a sum off the top to be put in the final prize pool. At the end of the seven events, the leading point getter receives enough to fund roundtrip airfare to Vegas, enough for 2-3 night's hotel, and $1500 for a buy-in to a World Series of Poker event.

This will be my personal first event of the Series, but I am looking forward to it. I hope to be back with a critique of my play, some hand histories of large hands that I witnessed, and some final results for you all.

Yet another reason why I'm a sick bastard...

2009-01-12T06:30:00.000-08:00

I am a huge Eagles fan and have been since birth. My mom held me in her lap watching the Eagles get crushed in Super Bowl XV, and I came of age as a fan during the great Eagles defenses of 1989-1992 with Randle Cunningham as a homeless man's Donovan McNabb. Anyway, no sooner did the Eagles defeat the Giants, then I was on Stubhub, eBay, and Kayak looking for game and plan tickets to get to Phoenix for the NFC Championship.

I estimated my total costs at $942 ($220 for a game ticket, $500 airfare, splitting hotel and car + food = another $222). I actually went through on a spreadsheet and figured out where I'd get the money from, what credit cards I'd use, and how long it would take to pay it off if I lived the same way. Turns out that with interest, the trip would cost me about $1,500, and I wouldn't be able to afford a new TV for 3 months and couldn't go on vacation until October.

After that, I did another spreadsheet with a cost/benefit analysis and actually estimated my utility from going on the trip (if they won) vs. going on the trip if they lost and assigned weighted averages based on probability of winning. I compared that to the baseline of more financial flexibility, the new TV sooner, and a vacation this summer, and I determined that I would be happier watching the game at Rhino Bar with all the other Iggles fans, and just call it a day.

Sure, I could have come to this decision with simple math or basic logic, but apparently, in depth statistical and "economic" analysis was needed. OY!

2 Donkeys, 1 Blog...

2009-01-08T11:56:00.000-08:00

If you are reading this blog, CONGRATULATIONS! You have officially bottomed out and can now start on your road to recovery...

This blog is a commentary on our collective experiences living life, playing poker (from free donkey tournaments at local bars to low stakes home games to online play), disturbing social trends, college and pro sports, television shows, and funny stories that we have to share. If you're looking to improve your poker game, you almost certainly have come to the wrong place. However, if you're looking for enjoyable stories about one-liners at the poker table, "big" hand analysis, busting chops, and some other non-poker anecdotes, you have also come to the wrong place...

Sit back, relax, and enjoy! It's not like you have work to do or anything...