See the video below. Here is a large version. This hand history was presented to us from a friend on a non-poker message board (in the poker thread). This is from the final stages of a $10 + $1 90 man deep stack tournament on an unnamed online site. There are 15 players left, and the top 9 get paid.First place earns roughly $325. Our “hero” has AA in late position with 7 people at the table…
Preflop: I like the raise there. Obviously, you’re reraising preflop (raised or not) with AA here. The size of the bet is about right to me. You’re hoping that everyone folds, and you take down a $4k pot. Worst case, you’re looking at an all-in from the baby stack or a reraise from an underpair, then you get it all in as a 4:1 fave. The BB goes all in, which has to be a worry. Why put your entire tournament on the line when there’s a raise and a reraise? Sure, you have AA, but that has to be a concern. Here, the UTG miniraiser flat-calls. Personally, I can’t stand a mini-raise at any point in any NL game. Either make a man-sized raise, call, or fold… However, the guy just flat calls with 3:1 odds. You have to immediately put him on a range of hands. I probably focus in on AK suited, KK, QQ, maybe JJ or 10’s. I don’t see most players risking that much with anything less, especially at a $10 buy-in. You have to figure that the dead money is already out at this point. You can probably discount KK because KK probably reraises all in there to isolate. In lower limits, people also overvalue AK, so AK probably reraises all in.
The Flop: Horrible flop here. You have no hearts, and it’s come Q-10-4, all hearts. If you have the guy on a pair from 8’s-Q’s, there’s a decent likelihood that he hit a set there. If he just has AK, he could have a made nut flush or the Ah/Kh, meaning you need a runner-runner boat to win. He bets out at this flop. The fact that he's betting into you after you showed so much strength preflop says 1 of 3 things: 1) "I have a set of Q's or 10’s, back off". 2) I have a made flush. Go away." or 3) "I have an overpair and a heart. Back off." Given the size of the bet (1/6 of the pot), you almost have to put him on the nut flush (AhKh, maybe AhJh. Why else would he value bet? Worst case, he has a set, meaning you have 2 outs at best to win (or runner-runner for a full house). Of all the hands he could have, the best case scenario is AQ with the Ah.
The Push: I personally think you have to fold and take your $26k (26 BB’s) and wait for another spot. In fact, I probably check it down unless I hit running boat cards. Instead, the “Hero” came over the top for $26k total. Really not the right play. As I mentioned, you have 26 BB’s left, and you’re still healthy. You have enough chips to play 16-18 rounds. You’re also betting $26k to win $6k if he folds, and you’re still up against the all-in player. I’m not shocked that the Hero got called, but the real amazement on my end is that he got called by JJ with the Jh. While the push was the wrong decision, I have no idea why the opponent bet or the called there. The Hulk will examine the hand from the viewpoint of the JJ player.
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first of all why wouldnt the BB go all in? He could do that from that position with any ace or even KQ, KJ suited or even unsuited and of course any pair.
ReplyDeleteYou have to consider what the guy had. He had 7-8 BB's left if he folded. You have to consider what he's doing with the all in and consider the fact that he stole an out. In this case, the BB was very much in the right to push. The problem I have is the play of the JJ.
ReplyDeleteHow do you calculate he is getting 3:1 btw?
ReplyDeleteThe guy has to call about 7k, and the pot is about 21k between the blinds, antes, the original raise, the reraise, and the all-in. The main pot was 29kish.
ReplyDeleteI agree...either he is a donkey or putting the hero on a bluff. If he wants, he can make a "where I stand" bet and see or just push. If the hero is savvy he comes over the top all in if he thinks that is that type of bet. Of course, if the JJ is savvy why play a hand against another big stack unless I have the joint? I think he was using position being first in the pot to force the hero to make a decision.
ReplyDeleteIf that was the case, why bet only $6k? And if it was a test bet, why call the all-in? Hulk is gonna review the JJ hand later.
ReplyDeleteHe's got to call the all in from the BB with JJ and the guys short stack???
ReplyDeleteI dont play online but was the "timing" of these bets-quick calls/moves or slow?? from what I understand that is one of the tells of an online player
ReplyDeleteThe timing of these bets was not indicated in the hand history, but from my recollection of the text that we used to build the video, the Hero requested time to sort out the hand before pushing over the top. That was probably a tell and enough to let the JJ make that call with solid confidence. That could be a big thing.
ReplyDeleteI like the flat call with the jacks there... 3 to 1 is great odds, and he gets to close out the betting. I don't like how the jacks played before or after the flop (but I'll see what the Hulk thinks later). The aces player has to fold there, I agree with you. Without a heart in his hand, only an over-pair on the board of death...
ReplyDeleteAn interesting point... was the reraise with the aces too big? I mean, knowing the big blind was so short, wouldn't it have been better to reraise to 6000, knowing that if the BB came in, you could come back over the top, fill the pot with a bunch of dead money (assuming 2nd position calls the all in and folds to the all in from the aces player).