Making the Right Moves Doesn't Always Pay, Online Hand 2/20/09

Here is an example of playing a hand well and still losing. I played aggressively, but I think I missed a chance to reraise the turn, resulting in a lost opportunity and a small loss by most anyone's standards.



Preflop: I joined this table specifically to play against the big stack. I had been playing aggressively with a lot of preflop raising and some 3-betting in key spots. I had been attacking the big stack specifically to get involved in a big pot. I got my wish, albeit without a huge hand. Any K in the SB against a random hand is likely to be favored, so I pumped it up to 15 cents (pot bet). He is a tighter player and calls. I put him on bigger cards, perhaps a KJ.

Flop: Bingo! This flop hit me and likely did not hit him. What's more, with my aggressive table image, he's not likely to believe that I've hit this hand. I lead out for about half the pot (15 cents) and he flat calls, almost certainly with overs. My read of KJ range is probably intact.

Turn: The 8 isn't likely to have helped him, so I lead out again for 25 cents (40% of the pot). He reraises me to 75 cents, probably thinking I'm on the steal. This is not a bad assumption, given that I'm raising preflop a good bit of the time. The pot is large enough for him to take a stab. I think about reraising again, but I only have a pair of 5's with a good kicker. He could have called with A-8. I play small ball and flat call, thinking there's a good chance I'm still good, but wanting to keep him on the hook for a value bet on the river.

River: A 10 is not really a good card at all here. Many players will call with x-10 because it looks nice, and the 10 connects to a lot of hands, like A-10, K-10 (hand of death), Q-10, J-10, 10-9, 10-8. I decide to block bet my 5's with an 80 center into a pot of $2 or so. I think it's enough to win on its own much of the time, but I also have fold equity. He flat calls, and I know I'm beat. He flips over Q-10 for the win.

Analysis: With the exception of maybe reraising on the turn for information, I think I played the hand pretty well. I was worried about my opponents TAG style, plus I assumed he accumulated a $20+ stack by outplaying people. I thought he was a capable opponent, so I played it a bit less risky. Overall, I think I made the moves necessary to win a nice pot. I just happened to get unlucky on the river. I give my opponent a great deal of credit for the creative turn bet, which allowed him to see a river and get another bet out of me. He probably got max value (unless he called a hypothetical reraise on the turn, which was unlikely).

Good Read + Ballsy Move With Pocket 4's, 2/11/09 Live Game

Near the end of the night at the Lunch Money Game, we were down to 6 handed, as Bob, Omaha, and Orange left early. I was sitting on about $80 (pretty much even for the night), and Pinata had a larger stack, probably at least $150. We played a pot for all my money, and even if I had lost, I think it was the best hand I've ever played. I put my opponent on a hand, was absolutely right, and I won a massive pot.



Preflop: It is folded around to Pinata on the button, who raises to $3. This is a little larger than button raises that he usually makes. That raises my radar, thinking that he has a relatively big hand, and he's hoping to get involved in a bigger pot. I put him on the hand range of pocket 7's-J's, plus AK, AQ, AJ, possibly KQ. I am in the small blind for 25 cents. I look down and pick up pocket 4's. I hope to call, hit a set, and crack him good. NJM folds, and we're heads up to the flop.

Flop: The 8-3-2 rainbow flop is very good for my pocket 4's. I'm pretty sure I have the best hand right now, but I also want to get some value out of it. I know that Pinata is a loose-aggressive (LAG) player. This image helps him win some big pots with his big hands. I decide to check to him, planning a check-raise to take down a larger pot, plus I can find out exactly where I'm at. I check, he bets $5. I get what I'm looking for, and the pot is now $11.50. I opt to reraise to $14 total. It is only $9 more to him, but I've shown that I don't believe him. It is almost a pot-sized reraise to him.

Pinata now goes into the tank, probably trying to put me on a hand range. I could have any pair, a set, AK, AQ, AJ, A-10, or A-8, or I could have absolutely nothing. He puts me on a hand and reraises to $40 total. Now I'm a little concerned. I replay the hand (especially the size of the preflop raise). I have him on a hand like 99 or AK/AQ. I am literally in the tank for about 2 minutes trying to figure it out. Was he reraising for information or was he reraising for value? Finally, I decide he has AK. I push all in for about $37 more.

Now Pinata is in the tank. He does not instacall. The fact that I wasn't snap-called makes me confident that I have the best hand. My biggest fear that this point would be Pocket 5's, 6's, and 7's, but I'm pretty confident that I made the right move here. Pinata puts me on 4's, 5's, or 6's (he told me after). The pot is worth about $123, and he has to call $37 or so for a chance to win the pot, so his pot odds are almost 4:1, and he has 6 outs twice to win (25% or about 3:1). In this case, he's getting the odds to call based on mathematics, plus the pot is $123 ($160 if he calls). That's assuming he puts me on a pocket pair and not a set. If I have a set, he's drawing dead. Pinata decides I have a pair and not a set based on the action. He makes a mathematical call.

Result: The turn and river are blanks, and I scoop a $160 pot.

Analysis: In terms of overall play, I think this hand was played well by both players. Both of us played at the second level, and we made proper plays based on the information. After a night of really playing badly, I salvaged a profit by playing very well for about 5 minutes.

"Bob" Makes a Tough Laydown on a Dangerous Board, 2/11/09 Game

As we all know, a huge part of winning poker is trusting your reads, then making the right plays based on those reads. Getting away from big made hands when you think (or know) that you’re beat will save you huge in the long run. “Bob” and I played for a rather large side pot on Wednesday. While my move pushed him out of a decent-sized pot with the best hand, I think he analyzed the hand correctly and made a good laydown given his read of the situation. While the video below might read as a successful bluff by EMG, I think it is a great example of a winning play by a good player. I’d like to think I could make that laydown (and I have in the past), but I’ve also lost plenty of huge pots by failing to go with my gut...



Preflop: EMG middle position. His hand range for limping is rather wide. Given the tighter action at the table, he could have a medium pair, suited connectors, big cards, etc. In this case, he has AQ, which is an interesting play. Since he had been playing tight, limp-calling a moderate raise disguises the strength of his hand. In addition, in multi-way pots, a player can get away cheap on a flop that misses. Or, in the case of a raise and a big reraise, EMG can just throw his hand away rather than play a huge pot in middle position with AQ. Dooley has an okay hand with KJ offsuit. It is playable, but in position, he’s fine to pop it up to $2.50. Given his tighter image, he has a chance to scoop a quick $1.25 without a fight.

Fat Tony comes over the top for all of his chips on the short stack with AJ. I’m fine with this play. He is very likely to have the best hand right now. He is hoping for 2 live cards or a race against only 1 of the 2 remaining players. In this case, he is a 3:1 dog to EMG, but is a 3:1 favorite to Bob. EMG smooth calls a pretty large reraise after a limp. Bob should be suspicious about this play, but calling with 3.5:1 pot odds with big cards is an okay play here. The main pot is about $24.50, and EMG and Bob will play on the side.

The Flop: This is a scary flop for any hand that doesn’t hold a club. Even though Bob has an up-and-down straight draw, he could easily be beaten by a made flush/straight flush, the J of clubs is freerolling against him, and QJ has a made straight. EMG checks, so Bob wants to isolate for the main pot. His $10 bet is a little small, but he’s probing for information. He’s asking EMG, “Do you have a made hand or a big flush draw?”. EMG flat calls the raise, which probably says, “Yes, I have a big flush draw or a J.” The side pot is now $20, with the total pot around $44.50.

The Turn: Good news! You hit your straight with the Q. If EMG has a lone J, you are now crushing him with the nut straight. The Q is also not a club, meaning your opponent has not made a flush if he had the Ac or Kc. If I’m Bob, I feel pretty good about my situation. In a somewhat surprising move, EMG goes all in! You immediately have to replay the hand in your head. He limp-calls preflop, check-calls a decent bet on the flop, then pushes all in on the turn on that board? The likely hand range here: the made nut flush, AJ with a lone club, A-x with the Ac, a small made flush (like the 4c-5c), or KJ with a club. In real life, Bob thought about this for a long time before folding. It was an agonizing decision, and if he saw my cards, he would have instacalled. However, from his perspective, I played this very oddly, and he was completely caught off guard by the play.

The River: With Bob throwing away the best hand (correctly, as I noted), Fat Tony has the made straight, and it holds up for a decent pot. EMG scoops the side pot for a small net gain.

Analysis: Going through the hand from Bob’s perspective after the EMG all in, I have to eliminate the made flush. If EMG had the nut flush, he’d likely check-raise the turn to get all the chips in the middle. If he had a smaller flush, he’d probably fire on the flop and push the turn to protect his hand against a big club draw. If I’m in his shoes, I probably put him on a set of 8's, maybe KJ with the Kc, or maybe a hand like A-10 or A-Q with the Qc. Getting 3:1 on my money, I am getting the right price. I'm almost certainly beating most hands he could have bet that way with. Folding is not the right play there mathematically unless I am definitive that he has a made flush. It is a ballsy play by EMG, and I let him off the hook. Regardless, I (Bob) definitely put it in my memory bank for the future.

From my perspective (as EMG), I read physical weakness in Bob when he called Fat Tony’s all in behind me pre-flop. Even so, I checked a scary board on the flop, hoping to get a free draw at my flush. I expected a bet from Bob, but I read definite uncertainty in the way he bet that $10 on the flop. I flat called with pot odds to hit my flush and with an idea that I could push all in on the turn and probably take the side pot. I probably should have went with my read and reraised there (representing a made flush) and taken it down. I played a little scared, and it could have cost me dearly. The Q was actually a bad card for me because it made my opponent's hand and strengthened my own. My read was that Bob had J-10 with no clubs. I determined that I was about 80% likely to take the side pot right there with a shove, and I and might even be ahead of Fat Tony for the main pot. If I’m wrong, I still think I have the biggest club out there, so I have up to 9 outs on a redraw on the river.

Overall, that is a scary, scary board. It takes heart to fire out there to begin with, and it takes a ton of heart and discipline to make a fold like that. Hats off to Bob for playing well. Even though it turns out he didn’t make a correct decision based on the results, he made a read and trusted it. That is the important thing to take away here. Edit: In reading comments from others, Bob likely didn't make the best play. With 3:1 pot odds, he pretty much has to call.

Overplaying QQ: Another Case Study

Let me start off by saying that I am a huge fan of QQ. Not only is it hot girl-on-girl action, it is a hugely powerful hand that can win you a big pot in NLHE. At the same time, it is beatable, and I have lost a lot of money with the hand. By sheer coincidence, Hulk busted early in a SNG tournament just yesterday by overplaying the hand. If played properly and in the right situations, QQ can do a lot for you. However, this situation last night is a clear case of overplaying the hand. It cost "Orange" his entire stack and may have caused him to tilt away more cash later.



Preflop: As you can see in the graphic above, Orange raised to $3 UTG. Not a typical play by some standards, but in our 25/50 cent game, raised go from $2 preflop to $5 or even $6 depending on the number of players in the pot. By raising, Orange is trying to limit the chances of marginal hands calling (and beating him). He would prefer to play this hand heads up. The loose-aggressive Pinata calls, and the tight-aggressive (but also tricky) EMG raises to $10.25. With action folded back around, you have 2 options because you're almost certainly not folding. You have significant set equity at the very least. You could also reraise if you put your opponent on a move. The fact that EMG reraised here should set off warning signals for Orange. While EMG will call preflop with a wide range of hands, why would he reraise preflop with 2 players already in the pot and field behind him and 5 players left to act? The hand range is small. AA, KK, QQ, maybe JJ, and maybe AK suited. QQ is unlikely, so you have to put him on AA or KK here. In this case, Orange smooth calls, a play that I agree with. There's no need to pot commit yourself with QQ against 1 tighter-aggressive opponent with a loose-aggressive player behind. Pinata also calls, but he's not getting reraised and can see a flop with a pot of $31.50 for $7.25 more, plus plenty of implied odds with some bigger stacks out there.

The Flop: Obviously, the flop missed you, but you have a big pair. The likelihood is that the flop missed EMG, but Pinata has to be watched. He could have flopped a straight draw, a set, or even 2 pair. In my opinion, you have to bet to see where you're at. Going for 1/3 to 1/2 of the pot or so is the best way to go. If you have the best hand and your opponent has AK or JJ/10's, you build the pot with a huge edge. You also get to read physical tells when your opponents think it through, and if you get reraised big, you can fold. Even if you get flat called by 1 or both opponents, you have 2 outs for a set, so there are implied odds. In this case, Orange tries to buy the pot with a $25 bet. I don't see this as a good EV play. You're likely only getting called by hands that are beating you, and if someone has a draw or a smallish pair, they're probably not calling. You're also pot committed with only $19.75 behind. Given the action, a huge overbet into 2 opponents, including a reraiser.

The Result: Here, Pinata folds (he was probably check-folding anyway), and EMG goes all in over the top. In this case, you have to know you're beat. In a tournament, you have to call here with the size of the pot. In a cash game, you can just fold and reload. No need to throw good money after bad. Orange calls with his QQ and EMG has KK. EMG rakes in a giant pot, Orange has to reload anyway.

Analysis: Most of what needs to be said here has already been said. Orange played way too first level and overbet his hand without a clear value proposition. When I am playing my best (and I definitely wasn't last night), I try to put my opponent on a hand range based on history, the betting action, and physical tells, then I try to plan out the hand in my head. There is also no shame in giving up a big pair or a made hand if you really think you're beat. As Mike Caro says, "Poker players get paid to make the right decisions. Money you don't lose needlessly is money won." No hand is unbeatable, especially on that kind of flop. Poker is about people more than anything else, and you have to get to that second level (what does my opponent have?) in order to make money consistently. Orange is normally better than that, but we all have blowups. I've been there, and I know that he will remember how he felt when he saw those Cowboys, and he'll learn and improve.

Officially Not My Week...

Okay, so in the last week, I have taken the beat described in the last post to get knocked out on the bubble. Here are some other beats I have taken:

I am in the BB with Q-10 and check my option. The flop comes Q-10-2. I check-call a pot-sized bet. The turn is a 7. I bet out and get raised all in. I call. My opponent has 7-2. The river is a 7 for a boat.

I am in the BB with 6-8. I check my option. The flop comes 5-7-9, so I have a made straight. I check, someone bets 3x the size of the pot, so I go all in, hoping for 2 pair. Even better, the player has the A-5 of clubs for 1 pair and a backdoor flush. Runner-runner flush, and I lose my stack.

I raise with 7's and get called by 2 players. The flop comes out 7-5-4 rainbow. Someone bets out. I call, the other player folds. The turn is an A. The player bets out, I go all in, he calls. The guy has K-6 suited for an up and down straight draw and rivers a 3 for a straight.

I am in late position against a new player. I have Q's. The new player raises to $.40. I flat call to see a flop. The flop comes K-10-3, rainbow. The new player just shoves. I think about it, and I decide he's full of it. I call. He has A-Q for an inside draw. He rivers a J for Broadway.

Note: The new player turns out to be a human ATM. For him, any pair on a board warrants an all in. He is also lucky, outcatching JJ with A-5, etc. I have a pretty good read on him.

I pick up 10's in second position. The turbo-donk pushes all in UTG. I call with 10's. The button calls with AK. The turbo donk has Q-9 of diamonds. The flop comes 10-5-2, 2 diamonds. The turn is a blank, and the river is a 3d. Turbo donk takes my stack and doubles through AK. I scream in anger.


Don't know what more I can do. I'm getting my money in really good, and my luck is just terrible right now. I'm trying to stay vigilant and keep playing my game. It's just hard to remain positive and focused when these hits keep coming.

Online Breakthrough?

In an earlier post, I highlighted some of the changes I had made to my bankroll management and my overall strategy. It had been paying some dividends, but yesterday/last night, I had a run that was based way more around skill than luck. Perhaps it’s the fact that I’m seeing so many online hands (100 SNG tournaments this month alone), plus I’ve been analyzing my own play, but I cashed in 7 of 11 $5 + $.50 tournaments for a profit (post rake) of $45. Sure, it’s a small time effort, but I think I’ve really turned the corner in terms of playing these small stakes tournaments. Here are some of my adjustments:

• Peg it early. Trying to peg the entire table within the first 5 hands, then building my image off those reads. My assessment is that bad players (as most of these guys are) want to convey their image to everyone else because they are first level donks and don’t understand higher level thinking. They are almost always playing their hand and not asking themselves what everyone else has. Because of this, I can quickly pinpoint the attack targets, the trap targets, etc., then adjust my play quickly based on how they react to my play.


• Very few pot-sized continuation bets. I play a little more loose and much more aggressive in these tournaments than I do live because of the quality of competition and because it works better than tighter play, I’ve found. I realized that I kept getting involved in monster pots where I had to bet all in on the turn to take it down because I was betting too much on the flop. I also found that when I had a monster and bet pot, I wasn’t getting enough callers. So, I adjusted it down and am working to build pots with half-pot bets. In this case, if I get raised (or even mini-raised), I have fold equity or pot-building equity. I can get away from a semibluff or a draw much more easily and with more of my stack intact. By consistently raising a set amount based on blind level (usually a little more than 3x the BB) and then continuation betting 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot on the flop, I’m taking down the same number of pots, but I’m also taking down bigger pots and losing less when I get reraised. I also have very few betting pattern tells.


• Making reads. I like to think I have acceptable skills at reading physical tells. Certainly players like Fat Tony, MH62, and Hulk (and I’m sure others) are better than me, but I like to think that I can read betting patterns and decipher what is going on in a hand better than many experienced players. Since there are no physical tells other than the amount of time it takes a player to bet + the betting patterns, it is up to me (or anyone) to determine why the bet was made and what my opponents’ holdings might be. Again, having seen several thousand online hands against some abysmal players, I have been better and better at getting away from hands when I know I’m beat and really making some solid calls. For instance, a few nights ago, I had a flush draw on a board of A-K-7, and bet it, then got reraised all in by a player who had limped on the button. I folded and wrote “you’re A-7 is good for now…”. He flashed A-7. How did I know? Well, the all-in didn’t make sense unless he had A-7 or K-7. Any other hand, and it’s a retarded move. He didn’t seem like a terrible player, so I put him on 2 pair and not wanting to get drawn on. Of course, he sucked all the value out of the hand by pushing, but if I’m stupid enough to call on a draw, he’s a solid favorite…


• Not over-raising/over-calling. We all know that bad players play badly at all times, but a short-stacked bad player should never be doubled up just to get the knockout. I was trying to push the action and investing way too much of my stack with marginal edges (or as a 3:1 dog). Likewise, when I was short-stacked, I was pushing all-in before I had to and in early position with weak A’s or medium K’s and getting called down by players in bad spots. By making later position plays with my short stack and not calling significant portions of my stack on all-ins without strong holdings, I maintained my chip lead (or my stack) and was able to get the money in in a better situation. Likewise, I tighten up as the blinds reach the 50/100 and 60/120 level to avoid getting reraised all in and being pot committed. I’ll then change gears when it’s 80/160, 100/200+ when it becomes profitable and less risky again.


• Not giving up. I really realized my breakthrough last night around 10 PM. On the first hand of a tournament, I got crippled. I held A-8 and checked in the BB. The flop came A-9-8. I called a small raise from the SB. The turn was a 9, which worried me, but I called a 3/4 pot bet from the same guy. I thought he had a 9 for sure, but I was stubborn and had played against so many bad players, I figured if he had A-9, he would have just gone all in... The river was an 8, giving me the 4^th nuts (behind AA, 99, and A9). He bet out most of my stack, and I (I suppose stupidly) flat called in case he was playing 10-9 or 9-8. He had A-9, and I had 255 chips starting the second hand. I told myself that I was better than everyone else, and there was no excuse why I couldn't still win. I ground it out, got some luck, picked my spots, and I ended up placing second in that tournament. I didn’t just throw my chips in and look to the next SNG. I was determined to make something happen, and I did. I knew that I’m never out of anything as long as I have chips. I can build off that "victory" for the future.
  

I'm not sure whether I can keep up this high level of play, but I know that I can truly dominate the $5 SNG level on Full Tilt regardless of chip position, position, and stack size. That confidence (as long as it doesn't hinder my risk tolerance) should allow me to really build my roll. I am feeling pretty good today, but I want to string together a week of these results before I can really be sure.

Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 2 of 2)

In Part 1 of this Story EMG examined the following hand from the point of view of djp4516, the player who's pocket aces were cracked in a large pot near the very end of the tournament. EMG and I thought it might be fun to examine the hand from the point of view of pireslousa and that's what I'm gonna try to do


Larger Version

Pre Flop: I've done as much thinking as I can about this mini raise to 2k. I don't like it. I know that professionals like Daniel Negreanu say that a min-raise has its place, but as I understand it he advocates this when the blinds are significant amounts of the stacks and the size of the stacks at this table certainly don't fall into that criteria. I'd have rather pireslousa made a raise to 3500 - 4500, but I can imagine a few thought processes that would lead to this action:

1. Really Tight table - They'll toss anything if they're not willing to play a big pot with me. If the respect my stack, they'll leave, and if any of the small stacks shove, I'm not so invested that I can't leave, or if I really think they'll shove with hands like AK, I'll race for up to 12k.
2. Scared of Jacks - Maybe this stands on its own, maybe in combination with scenario 1, the min raise is just enough to say I'm interested in this hand, but let the other players at the table make the next move and let me see where I fit in and gauge my comfort level.
   

Regardless, the call after the raise from djp4516 and the shove of k9luvr's short stack make it at the very least acceptable. Folding here isn't a bad play either, not wanting to get mixed up in a three way pot with JJ is understandable, but if you're gunnin' for the top prize, the call gets you into a pot that can put you in really nice shape, especially since I don't think the all-in was enough to allow a re-raise if flat called.

Post Flop: This is not the flop JJ was dreaming about, but with 2nd pair and a redraw to a flush, it might be worth the 6k bet into the (fairly) dry side-pot to isolate against that short stack. The more I've thought about it the more I like the bet. It represents about 1/5th of the pot, and a little less than 1/4th of djp4516's stack. It's just enough that it should eliminate the flat call from djp4516's arsenal and if pireslousa get raised here, folding leaves him 24k in chips at 1k/2k blinds puts him in 3rd or 4th place at that table, not optimal, but in good shape to make the money. The call, however is something I can't believe happened. djp4516's shove should make pireslousa hit the fold button. The only defense of pirelousa's is the pot odds. If I do it right, there's about 63k in the pot, the call for about 20k makes it just over 3 to 1, close enough for the flush redraw if it's good, add two more outs for the other Jacks in the deck and it's a decent price ... but that's cash game talk and I don't think you can even believe your flush would be good if it got there in that spot. In the late stages of a tournament, when you're one big mistake from zero, I think it's a reckless call. Let me know in the comments what I'm wrong about.

Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 1 of 2)

See the video below. Here is a large version. This hand history was presented to us from a friend on a non-poker message board (in the poker thread). This is from the final stages of a $10 + $1 90 man deep stack tournament on an unnamed online site. There are 15 players left, and the top 9 get paid.First place earns roughly $325. Our “hero” has AA in late position with 7 people at the table…



Preflop: I like the raise there. Obviously, you’re reraising preflop (raised or not) with AA here. The size of the bet is about right to me. You’re hoping that everyone folds, and you take down a $4k pot. Worst case, you’re looking at an all-in from the baby stack or a reraise from an underpair, then you get it all in as a 4:1 fave. The BB goes all in, which has to be a worry. Why put your entire tournament on the line when there’s a raise and a reraise? Sure, you have AA, but that has to be a concern. Here, the UTG miniraiser flat-calls. Personally, I can’t stand a mini-raise at any point in any NL game. Either make a man-sized raise, call, or fold… However, the guy just flat calls with 3:1 odds. You have to immediately put him on a range of hands. I probably focus in on AK suited, KK, QQ, maybe JJ or 10’s. I don’t see most players risking that much with anything less, especially at a $10 buy-in. You have to figure that the dead money is already out at this point. You can probably discount KK because KK probably reraises all in there to isolate. In lower limits, people also overvalue AK, so AK probably reraises all in.

The Flop: Horrible flop here. You have no hearts, and it’s come Q-10-4, all hearts. If you have the guy on a pair from 8’s-Q’s, there’s a decent likelihood that he hit a set there. If he just has AK, he could have a made nut flush or the Ah/Kh, meaning you need a runner-runner boat to win. He bets out at this flop. The fact that he's betting into you after you showed so much strength preflop says 1 of 3 things: 1) "I have a set of Q's or 10’s, back off". 2) I have a made flush. Go away." or 3) "I have an overpair and a heart. Back off." Given the size of the bet (1/6 of the pot), you almost have to put him on the nut flush (AhKh, maybe AhJh. Why else would he value bet? Worst case, he has a set, meaning you have 2 outs at best to win (or runner-runner for a full house). Of all the hands he could have, the best case scenario is AQ with the Ah.

The Push: I personally think you have to fold and take your $26k (26 BB’s) and wait for another spot. In fact, I probably check it down unless I hit running boat cards. Instead, the “Hero” came over the top for $26k total. Really not the right play. As I mentioned, you have 26 BB’s left, and you’re still healthy. You have enough chips to play 16-18 rounds. You’re also betting $26k to win $6k if he folds, and you’re still up against the all-in player. I’m not shocked that the Hero got called, but the real amazement on my end is that he got called by JJ with the Jh. While the push was the wrong decision, I have no idea why the opponent bet or the called there. The Hulk will examine the hand from the viewpoint of the JJ player.

Turkey Nerd History, Part I

o In an effort to edumacate all of you honkeys, crackers, and other assorted racial epithets, I asked around to the Lunch Money Game crew for their version of how the venerable term ‘Turkey Nerd’ came into existence. The first respondent is Big John, who offered this historical gem:

The TurkeyNerd was born in the 'Lunch Money' game. One of the
regulars, The Blind Master River King (BMRK), has a loose style of play that generates huge swings during his sessions.* Generally good natured about the hand's outcome, should he lose the pot, whoever drags the chips to their stack will be derided with such strong language as "you Turkey!" or "Nerd!" thrown in as a bit of a change up.

In the BMRK's absence at one session, he was imitated by the losers of pots. EMG has the best voice imitation, but we all do our best. And as the words came out they were eventually put together. I was card dead that night, losing most of the pots I played, and being very easy to entertain, I spent most of that session either repeating the new compound word or laughing at it in my head. Who holds claim to saying it first ? I think it was me, but it belongs to this group of degenerates now.

There is no real reason that the 4 of diamonds and 7 of clubs is the official TurkeyNerd hand ... when I made the graphic it seemed only right to grab a raggedy starting hand that met the criteria of being
Either a Made Hand ... or a Draw.

* Loose is not the right word, but it's the closest word in the Poker lexicon that I know of. Playing against the BMRK is very similar to playing a human slot machine. He's impossible to read, because he'll refuse to look and won't know his cards at least 1/2 the time. And if you're not betting the nuts, you're bound to have 2nd best.

Hand Histories (I need a straw from all that sucking out...)

As I mentioned before, I was a bit of a suckout king last night. I hit 3-outers in 3 large hands against better A's, plus my lovely 5-2 rivered straight. See below for some of the highlights. Critique and discussion is welcome!

• Early in the session, I picked up AsJc in the BB. Pinata raised it up in early position to $3, and there were 2 callers. I thought about reraising, but I opted to flat call, with the plan of possibly betting or check-raising the flop depending on “texture”. The flop came out A-J-7, rainbow, so I had top 2 pair. I checked, hoping that someone (namely Pinata) had AK, AQ, A-10, or A-7, so I could get it all in as a favorite. My main worry was 77 because it was less likely he spiked the case J or the case A. He bet $12 (pot bet), making the pot about $24, and I had about $35 behind me. I thought for a second, thinking about flat-calling. If I flat-called, I’d have $20-25 behind me, and the pot would be $36, meaning that if a “scare” card came on the turn, I wouldn’t have enough to push him off it. I thought about pushing, and he told me I’d get called. I decided he had AK or AQ and pushed. He had AK. Blanks on the turn/river, and I raked a nice $75-80 pot.
  
  
• We saw quads last night, though not the easily concealed kind. Essentially, Dooley had raised in early position on every street with a board of A-9-x. The turn and river were both 9’s. The pot was around $25, and he bet $10. Pinata reraised all in for about $18 more. Dooley went into the tank and said out loud, “I think you have the 9 for quads…” For some reason, he ended up flipping a coin (literally) to decide whether to call with his A (aces full of 9’s). He called, and Pinata dragged a nice pot.
  
  
• About 25 mins later, I got AJ again in middle position. MH6-2, an aggressive player, raised to $3. Wanting to isolate and maybe take down a $4 pot, I reraised to $11. It folded back around to him, and he stared me down. The longer he stared me down, the better I felt that I had the best hand. He is capable of making that raise with suited connectors, KQ, KJ, etc. He is also capable of having a big pair, but I didn’t get that sense. I felt like he was really trying to read me and decide if pushing ($14.75 more) would win the pot or if he was ahead. He did push, and I thought heavily about calling. The pot was $22.75 + his $14.75 for a total of $37.50. I had about 3:1 to call. If I had a better A, I was 3:1 to win. If he had an underpair, I was about 48% to win. If he had a bigger A, I was 1:3 to lose. Given those possibilities, I decided to call. He had AQ, and I caught a J on the river to stack him. Sucky suckout, and I hate doing it to people, but I’ll take the money.
  
  
• Around 10:15, I got Q-3 of hearts on the button. It was limped around, so I called the 50 cents more with 5 people in the pot. The flop was 4-3-3, 2 diamonds. It was checked around to me, so I checked trying to trap. The turn was a 5 of spades, putting a 3 card straight and 2 flush draws on the board. I felt like maybe I could have the best hand, but I definitely feared a diamond draw or a made straight with 6-7. The pot was only $2.50, but it was raised in early position, and MH6-2 reraised to $6. I put him on a 4-7 or a flush draw, so I flat called. The original raiser folded, making the pot $16.50. The river was a blank. MH bet $10, and I called, hoping my set was good. He had the 6-7 for a nice $36.50 pot.
  
  
• I caught on Pinata again for a $35 pot with A-9. Caught 2 pair on the flop and check-called, then bet the turn, and rivered a full house and value bet it at $13. He called with AJ (I think), and I showed the boat.
  
  
• My favorite hand that I played last night was when I had 5-2 of diamonds in mid/late position. There was an UTG raise to $2 (a “mini-raise”), and MH6-2 called. There was one other late position caller, making the starting pot about $8.75. The flop came out K-4-3, with 1 diamond, giving me the up and down straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. The original raiser led out for $6. MH6-2 folded (turned out to be 8’s), and I opted to flat call heads up and in position. The turn was the 8 of diamonds, pissing off MH, but I added a flush draw to my straight. For some reason, the bet was pretty tiny ($8). I felt like he had a big K or maybe a garbage 2 pair, and he was value betting me. I didn’t put him on a flush draw because he led out in early position. I felt if I hit any of my 15 outs (9 diamonds, 3 6’s + 3 A’s), I would get paid. I flat called the $8, making the pot $36. The river was a black A, so no flush, but the nut straight (and very nicely concealed). He bet out $12, and I sat and thought about how much I could raise and get paid. I decided on an $18 reraise ($30 total). If he had a set or a big 2 pair, he’d maybe reraise, and I could get all my money in. If he had a smaller 2 pair or maybe KQ, I would get a call. He had K-4 (2 pair) and called. I dragged a $96 pot.
  
  
• Sick value check from Pinata against MH6-2. There was a 3-5 on the board, and MH made a comment when calling a $20 bet that he was looking to catch his draw. There were no flushes on the board. A 2 came on the river. MH checked, and Pinata immediately checked behind with 2-pair, stating that MH’s 4-6 was good with a straight. Awesome read.