Breaking the Rules: Playing When Unfocused

I woke up this morning (that's as good as this story gets) with to the best of knowledge was a small creature with a sledgehammer smashing the insides of my head. It was bad enough to call out of the office, since focusing wasn't gonna be my strong suit today and the potential for self inflicted pain at work was high. So I got the bright idea to try a couple of sit & goes, and try to get my mind off of the pain. What followed was the throwing away of the modest profit that I had earned in three sit & goes, culminating in this ridiculously simplistic misplay at the end of the 3rd:



It starts out well enough, a standard under the gun raise to 150, and my decision to flat call there was an attempt to not race so early in the tournament. I thought about the raise, but I didn't want to get over involved with pocket Queens when it's very possible that this guy's raising in that position with Ace King and a raise will induce him to shove.
The raise behind me should have set off all kinds of bells and whistles but instead I decide he's just trying to squeeze with his 2nd place stack (a horrible conclusion) and decide to do EXACTLY what I didn't want to do ... get over involved with pocket Queens this early in a tournament when there's so much play left. I guess the good news is that it's only a $5+.50 sit & go, but for this day, I break my rule by playing when I can't stay focused and go out like a Mexican Clydesdale.

Took a Break, Ready to Roll

After a week where I started to run bad and probably started to play bad, I decided to take a short hiatus from any poker at all. This was aided by a Lunch Money Game vacation because Fat Tony had to move… again… Anyway, I didn’t play for 5 days after pretty much playing 5-7 days a week for 4-5 months. I almost logged in a few times to Full Tilt or Cake, but I did not play any hands for the work week. It was good to get away from trying to grind it out at these microstakes, and I worked on clearing my head and making sure I was playing my best game.

That’s not to say that I was completely removed from working on my poker skills. I bought Collin Moshman’s Sit N Go Strategy book via Amazon. I learned of this book listening to Mediocre Poker on 106.7 WJFK, a local talk station. The hosts had him on as a guest, and he discussed his background, rise to prominence and some basics to his overall thinking about the game. His interview impressed me enough to invest $15 in his book. It is published by 2 + 2, so the format echoes Harrington on Hold ‘Em, a series of 3 excellent books about tournament strategy from a former WSOP Main Event champ. I am currently about 40% through the book, and there are some excellent tips in there for handling situations early and middle of the way though Sit N Go’s. If you are a beginner, the book might be a little over your head, but if you can grasp basic strategy and are looking to improve your play in Sit N Go’s, it’s a great investment.

I logged in Friday night for the first time, and I played 4 SNG’s. I finished up about $30 in 45 minutes, winning 2 SNG’s, placing second once, and bubbling in 3^rd in the other. Not a bad start for getting back into it, but I want to get back to playing 5-7 days a week again. Once my roll is in a place where I have a total profit of 15 buy-ins for 5/10 cent ($150 total), I’m going to switch over to play cash games. Until then, I’m going to grind it out with the $5 SNG’s and see what happens.

Online Breakthrough?

In an earlier post, I highlighted some of the changes I had made to my bankroll management and my overall strategy. It had been paying some dividends, but yesterday/last night, I had a run that was based way more around skill than luck. Perhaps it’s the fact that I’m seeing so many online hands (100 SNG tournaments this month alone), plus I’ve been analyzing my own play, but I cashed in 7 of 11 $5 + $.50 tournaments for a profit (post rake) of $45. Sure, it’s a small time effort, but I think I’ve really turned the corner in terms of playing these small stakes tournaments. Here are some of my adjustments:

• Peg it early. Trying to peg the entire table within the first 5 hands, then building my image off those reads. My assessment is that bad players (as most of these guys are) want to convey their image to everyone else because they are first level donks and don’t understand higher level thinking. They are almost always playing their hand and not asking themselves what everyone else has. Because of this, I can quickly pinpoint the attack targets, the trap targets, etc., then adjust my play quickly based on how they react to my play.


• Very few pot-sized continuation bets. I play a little more loose and much more aggressive in these tournaments than I do live because of the quality of competition and because it works better than tighter play, I’ve found. I realized that I kept getting involved in monster pots where I had to bet all in on the turn to take it down because I was betting too much on the flop. I also found that when I had a monster and bet pot, I wasn’t getting enough callers. So, I adjusted it down and am working to build pots with half-pot bets. In this case, if I get raised (or even mini-raised), I have fold equity or pot-building equity. I can get away from a semibluff or a draw much more easily and with more of my stack intact. By consistently raising a set amount based on blind level (usually a little more than 3x the BB) and then continuation betting 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot on the flop, I’m taking down the same number of pots, but I’m also taking down bigger pots and losing less when I get reraised. I also have very few betting pattern tells.


• Making reads. I like to think I have acceptable skills at reading physical tells. Certainly players like Fat Tony, MH62, and Hulk (and I’m sure others) are better than me, but I like to think that I can read betting patterns and decipher what is going on in a hand better than many experienced players. Since there are no physical tells other than the amount of time it takes a player to bet + the betting patterns, it is up to me (or anyone) to determine why the bet was made and what my opponents’ holdings might be. Again, having seen several thousand online hands against some abysmal players, I have been better and better at getting away from hands when I know I’m beat and really making some solid calls. For instance, a few nights ago, I had a flush draw on a board of A-K-7, and bet it, then got reraised all in by a player who had limped on the button. I folded and wrote “you’re A-7 is good for now…”. He flashed A-7. How did I know? Well, the all-in didn’t make sense unless he had A-7 or K-7. Any other hand, and it’s a retarded move. He didn’t seem like a terrible player, so I put him on 2 pair and not wanting to get drawn on. Of course, he sucked all the value out of the hand by pushing, but if I’m stupid enough to call on a draw, he’s a solid favorite…


• Not over-raising/over-calling. We all know that bad players play badly at all times, but a short-stacked bad player should never be doubled up just to get the knockout. I was trying to push the action and investing way too much of my stack with marginal edges (or as a 3:1 dog). Likewise, when I was short-stacked, I was pushing all-in before I had to and in early position with weak A’s or medium K’s and getting called down by players in bad spots. By making later position plays with my short stack and not calling significant portions of my stack on all-ins without strong holdings, I maintained my chip lead (or my stack) and was able to get the money in in a better situation. Likewise, I tighten up as the blinds reach the 50/100 and 60/120 level to avoid getting reraised all in and being pot committed. I’ll then change gears when it’s 80/160, 100/200+ when it becomes profitable and less risky again.


• Not giving up. I really realized my breakthrough last night around 10 PM. On the first hand of a tournament, I got crippled. I held A-8 and checked in the BB. The flop came A-9-8. I called a small raise from the SB. The turn was a 9, which worried me, but I called a 3/4 pot bet from the same guy. I thought he had a 9 for sure, but I was stubborn and had played against so many bad players, I figured if he had A-9, he would have just gone all in... The river was an 8, giving me the 4^th nuts (behind AA, 99, and A9). He bet out most of my stack, and I (I suppose stupidly) flat called in case he was playing 10-9 or 9-8. He had A-9, and I had 255 chips starting the second hand. I told myself that I was better than everyone else, and there was no excuse why I couldn't still win. I ground it out, got some luck, picked my spots, and I ended up placing second in that tournament. I didn’t just throw my chips in and look to the next SNG. I was determined to make something happen, and I did. I knew that I’m never out of anything as long as I have chips. I can build off that "victory" for the future.
  

I'm not sure whether I can keep up this high level of play, but I know that I can truly dominate the $5 SNG level on Full Tilt regardless of chip position, position, and stack size. That confidence (as long as it doesn't hinder my risk tolerance) should allow me to really build my roll. I am feeling pretty good today, but I want to string together a week of these results before I can really be sure.

Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 2 of 2)

In Part 1 of this Story EMG examined the following hand from the point of view of djp4516, the player who's pocket aces were cracked in a large pot near the very end of the tournament. EMG and I thought it might be fun to examine the hand from the point of view of pireslousa and that's what I'm gonna try to do


Larger Version

Pre Flop: I've done as much thinking as I can about this mini raise to 2k. I don't like it. I know that professionals like Daniel Negreanu say that a min-raise has its place, but as I understand it he advocates this when the blinds are significant amounts of the stacks and the size of the stacks at this table certainly don't fall into that criteria. I'd have rather pireslousa made a raise to 3500 - 4500, but I can imagine a few thought processes that would lead to this action:

1. Really Tight table - They'll toss anything if they're not willing to play a big pot with me. If the respect my stack, they'll leave, and if any of the small stacks shove, I'm not so invested that I can't leave, or if I really think they'll shove with hands like AK, I'll race for up to 12k.
2. Scared of Jacks - Maybe this stands on its own, maybe in combination with scenario 1, the min raise is just enough to say I'm interested in this hand, but let the other players at the table make the next move and let me see where I fit in and gauge my comfort level.
   

Regardless, the call after the raise from djp4516 and the shove of k9luvr's short stack make it at the very least acceptable. Folding here isn't a bad play either, not wanting to get mixed up in a three way pot with JJ is understandable, but if you're gunnin' for the top prize, the call gets you into a pot that can put you in really nice shape, especially since I don't think the all-in was enough to allow a re-raise if flat called.

Post Flop: This is not the flop JJ was dreaming about, but with 2nd pair and a redraw to a flush, it might be worth the 6k bet into the (fairly) dry side-pot to isolate against that short stack. The more I've thought about it the more I like the bet. It represents about 1/5th of the pot, and a little less than 1/4th of djp4516's stack. It's just enough that it should eliminate the flat call from djp4516's arsenal and if pireslousa get raised here, folding leaves him 24k in chips at 1k/2k blinds puts him in 3rd or 4th place at that table, not optimal, but in good shape to make the money. The call, however is something I can't believe happened. djp4516's shove should make pireslousa hit the fold button. The only defense of pirelousa's is the pot odds. If I do it right, there's about 63k in the pot, the call for about 20k makes it just over 3 to 1, close enough for the flush redraw if it's good, add two more outs for the other Jacks in the deck and it's a decent price ... but that's cash game talk and I don't think you can even believe your flush would be good if it got there in that spot. In the late stages of a tournament, when you're one big mistake from zero, I think it's a reckless call. Let me know in the comments what I'm wrong about.

Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 1 of 2)

See the video below. Here is a large version. This hand history was presented to us from a friend on a non-poker message board (in the poker thread). This is from the final stages of a $10 + $1 90 man deep stack tournament on an unnamed online site. There are 15 players left, and the top 9 get paid.First place earns roughly $325. Our “hero” has AA in late position with 7 people at the table…



Preflop: I like the raise there. Obviously, you’re reraising preflop (raised or not) with AA here. The size of the bet is about right to me. You’re hoping that everyone folds, and you take down a $4k pot. Worst case, you’re looking at an all-in from the baby stack or a reraise from an underpair, then you get it all in as a 4:1 fave. The BB goes all in, which has to be a worry. Why put your entire tournament on the line when there’s a raise and a reraise? Sure, you have AA, but that has to be a concern. Here, the UTG miniraiser flat-calls. Personally, I can’t stand a mini-raise at any point in any NL game. Either make a man-sized raise, call, or fold… However, the guy just flat calls with 3:1 odds. You have to immediately put him on a range of hands. I probably focus in on AK suited, KK, QQ, maybe JJ or 10’s. I don’t see most players risking that much with anything less, especially at a $10 buy-in. You have to figure that the dead money is already out at this point. You can probably discount KK because KK probably reraises all in there to isolate. In lower limits, people also overvalue AK, so AK probably reraises all in.

The Flop: Horrible flop here. You have no hearts, and it’s come Q-10-4, all hearts. If you have the guy on a pair from 8’s-Q’s, there’s a decent likelihood that he hit a set there. If he just has AK, he could have a made nut flush or the Ah/Kh, meaning you need a runner-runner boat to win. He bets out at this flop. The fact that he's betting into you after you showed so much strength preflop says 1 of 3 things: 1) "I have a set of Q's or 10’s, back off". 2) I have a made flush. Go away." or 3) "I have an overpair and a heart. Back off." Given the size of the bet (1/6 of the pot), you almost have to put him on the nut flush (AhKh, maybe AhJh. Why else would he value bet? Worst case, he has a set, meaning you have 2 outs at best to win (or runner-runner for a full house). Of all the hands he could have, the best case scenario is AQ with the Ah.

The Push: I personally think you have to fold and take your $26k (26 BB’s) and wait for another spot. In fact, I probably check it down unless I hit running boat cards. Instead, the “Hero” came over the top for $26k total. Really not the right play. As I mentioned, you have 26 BB’s left, and you’re still healthy. You have enough chips to play 16-18 rounds. You’re also betting $26k to win $6k if he folds, and you’re still up against the all-in player. I’m not shocked that the Hero got called, but the real amazement on my end is that he got called by JJ with the Jh. While the push was the wrong decision, I have no idea why the opponent bet or the called there. The Hulk will examine the hand from the viewpoint of the JJ player.

Online Analysis to Date

I have been playing a decent amount of online poker using Full Tilt. My goal is to turn a $100 bankroll investment into $1000 by December. I started off pretty strong, raking in $100 in my first month playing 5/10 cent NLHE 2 and 3 tables at a time. I was playing a more tight-solid game at that point, targeting weak players, keeping pots small, playing pots for value. However, I was having trouble playing against hyper-aggressive players for whatever reason. I would get impatient and would call all-ins with just flush draws or a weak A. It was a dumb strategy, and I started to backslide. Stupidly, instead of just shifting my strategy or table selecting better, I decided to switch and play Pot Limit Omaha (PLO) at the 5/10 cent levels. This was disastrous to my bankroll. I went from a + $80 month my first month to below my initial $100 in bankroll.

Looking back, I was playing pretty much every double-suited hands, big pairs, and suited and connecting hands. While I may have overvalued some of my hands preflop, I was also not accounting for the type of game I would encounter. It is essentially impossible to bluff at this level. Since the variance can be so high, pretty much everyone plays every pot, and you need the stone nuts to even bet. Even when you have the best hand, things swing back and forth. I flopped quads over quads twice and won big pots, only to flop a full house the next pot and lose to quads. At a max $10 buy-in per table, you basically have enough in your stack to play 1 monster pot, so you’re very variance dependent. I like to semibluff my draws (the only way to play PLO), but against 4-5 other players, it is very tough to know where you’re at from street to street.

After getting cracked for pretty much all of my profits that I ground out in Hold Em, I gave up and realized that I really didn’t have the roll right now to play cash the way I want to play. I had been playing some Sit N Go’s (SNG), with pretty solid results (expected profit of $3.50 per 6 max SNG). I decided to rebuild my roll by multitabling $5 6 max SNG’s exclusively. In the past 2 weeks, I’m earning about $2 profit per match. I know that I am significantly better than my competition, so I use that advantage, plus I am being much more aggressive preflop early in tournaments. I set an aggressive image early and tend to get my big hands paid off. For instance, last night I called a raised with 10-7 suited, flopped 2 pair against JJ and doubled up. The very next hand, I picked up QQ and pumped it up again, and got reraised all-in by K-10 (hand of death). I instacalled and busted the guy. All of a sudden, I’m sitting with $5k in chips with 4 players left, and I can afford to sit back and pick spots. In general, I peg the table within the first 7-10 hands, and I pick on the ones who I can pick on, and value bet the heck out of every pot. I also play the short stack well, so even if I have to fold on a scary board, I’m still in every tournament. I’ve gone from 300 chips early to winning the thing by not getting desperate.

At the same time, one big adjustment that I’ve made here (that I almost never do live) is flat calling preflop or checking the BB with AK, particularly if I’ve been playing loose and aggressive. When I hit, I tend to bet out against the aggressor and tend to get met with a reraise, so I get my chips in. Even if the flop is super scary, I just get away from it with a limp. Not overplaying AK has a very high EV for me, particularly with the image that I’ve set.

Overall, I’m back up about $25 over my initial buy ($125 total). It has been a better month with me playing smarter, playing fewer tables, and quitting whenever I feel I’m not playing my best. I’m happy with the result playing the SNG’s, but I want to get my roll up to $200 total, so I can start playing some 5/10 cent NLHE to really build my roll.