I took one of the worst beats of my life to get bounced from EMHD #3 in 6th place (2 out of the money). I had recently doubled up through Julio with AQ over A-8 (I think that was the hand) to about $34,000 or $35,000 in chips. Blinds were $2k/$4k, and I'm in the SB with Fat Tony in the BB. It's folded around to me, and I pick up Ad/Kd and raise to $10k. Fat Tony (who had been playing super aggressive, especially for him) came over the top for all my chips. After rechecking my cards and assuring myself that I have to call (not necessarily pot committed, but I only have 5 BB's left, and I have a top 14 hand), I called. Fat Tony had As/5c.
The flop: Qs-Qc-2s. I'm still looking good, but I'm not loving my position.
The turn: Ks. Not a great card for me. While Tony loses the 5d and 5h as outs to win, he gains the 9 remaining spades as outs. I'm about 81% to win the pot, but I'm not feeling awesome.
The river: 3s. Fat Tony scoops the pot with the nut flush. I'm in shock.
Obviously, if Tony knows what I have, he maybe flat calls there at best, but given the stack sizes and the situation, it was a play that he thought he could make and maybe even be ahead if I'm playing KQ/KJ. I'm still a bit in shock that it went down that way, but it is what it is. I really think that given the situation and my stack size, plus how well I think I was playing, that if I had won that pot, I would have had a really strong chance to place very highly in the tournament. Maybe with the big stack, I really could have done some damage and won the thing. We'll never know...
Saturday, January 31, 2009
TurkeyNerves
At the pre-game event number 3 of the EMHD, BMRK explained that he got nervous in tournaments. EMG exclaimed "Turkey Nerrrrrvous!"
Remember: When you're playing poker, it's just a game. No need to come down with a bad case of the TurkeyNERRRRRVES!
Thursday, January 29, 2009
No Rakeback = No More Full Tilt?
Being a bit of a novice online player, I'm always looking to learn new things about how to grow my bankroll. I am an avid listener of Mediocre Poker Radio, which plays on 106.7 WJFK on Sunday nights. If you miss the show, you can always catch podcasts on the Mediocre Poker site. The Hulk or myself will discuss the merits of this show another time, but one thing that EB (the co-host) talks about constantly is rakeback. Listening to the most recent podcast, one of the guests tauted the absolute critical need for every grinder out there to have rakeback. Of course, I had always wondered what it was, but I had never looked into this type of service. Here's what I learned:
The problem here is that Full Tilt is notoriously stingy about offering rakeback to existing account holders. Many of the sites I looked into would not submit a request for my account. However, www.raketherake.com was willing to handle this on my behalf, but they did not promise any results. Given that I want to build my bankroll, I have to take advantage of every opportunity, both on the table and off. If FT won't help a brother out, I'll have to take my business elsewhere. I'll keep you all updated about what transpires...
- Rakeback is a refund of the "rake" that you pay to play any cash game or tournament. Depending on the host site and the rakeback site, you can earn anywhere from 25%-35% in refunds if you use any of these providers. The rakeback provider tracks your play at whatever game/stake, then will refund the set % of the raked amount back into your account on a monthly basis.
- Cash players pay more rake than tournament players because pretty much every hand that sees a flop is "raked" a set percentage. As such, cash players are entitled to more rakeback.
- Cash players have an added bonus here because they not only get the refund on pots they play/win, but they also receive the same rate on raked hands that they do not play. Essentially, if you are dealt cards, you are eligible to receive rakeback for that pot.
- According to Guido, who is a very wise man, if you generate a large volume of hands seen and are a break-even player, you can build your bankroll via rakeback alone. (Of course, being a winning player is also helpful).
- For more info, I trust this site.
The problem here is that Full Tilt is notoriously stingy about offering rakeback to existing account holders. Many of the sites I looked into would not submit a request for my account. However, www.raketherake.com was willing to handle this on my behalf, but they did not promise any results. Given that I want to build my bankroll, I have to take advantage of every opportunity, both on the table and off. If FT won't help a brother out, I'll have to take my business elsewhere. I'll keep you all updated about what transpires...
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Live Hand : Omaha Hi Lo 1/25
In a previous post EMG told tales from Texas Crint's Game. After he left we played some dealer's choice. There were a few rounds of Hold 'Em , but Omaha, 3 card Omaha, and Pot Limit Omaha 8 or better were added to the menu. This hand happened after I turned into a card rack, and made for the biggest pot I'd played in months:
We were 5 handed, I sat in the little blind, MH62 in the big. Texas Crint was Under the Gun, Julio P was next, and el Pinata had the button and the deck.
Pre Flop: Texas Crint called the 50 cent BB, Julio P folded, Pinata calls on the button, and I complete the blind. MH62 raises pot, making it 2 dollars to go. With Texas Crint and Pinata calling, it seemed to make sense to call with the following hole cards:
Hulk Hole Cards:
The Flop:
This is undoubtedly a good flop for me, I've made the 2nd nut straight, and have redraws to the nut low, and a heart flush. Since I'm acting first this round, I decide to bet pot, 8 dollars after the pre-flop action, and much to my surprise MH62 raises pot, making it another $24 to see the turn. Texas Crint and el Pinata fold moving the action back to me. A more experienced player probably re-raises here, the 2nd nuts, redraw to the wheel for the nut low, and the flush redraw which might be good, or at least block the better flush MH62 could be drawing for might make it elementary ... but I agonize about it. Maybe at another game I can discount 4 7 with a pre-flop raise, but look at the logo of this blog. I'm also without an Ace for the nut low, and MH62 re-raised ME ! EMG's mentioned in other posts that I'm pretty tight, so I'm sure he's strong here, maybe stronger than I want him to be. Ah Ac 4h 7s ? 44 77 ? Both hands run through my mind, but I finally decide to call. Not a strong move, and I hated myself for it at the time, but I know that MH62 isn't afraid to draw, and I want some more information before I commit the rest of my chips. I'm just not able to narrow his hand range down enough for the re-raise, and want to keep some of my stack around for later hands.
The Turn:
Any agony that plagued me after the re-raise passed, and as soon as the 10 of diamonds hit I bet pot, which after my call post-flop was a substantial 72 dollars. It was enough to put MH62 all in, and he called for the 61 dollars left in his stack. It wasn't necessarily the turn card that made me lead out. The card didn't change anything for either of us, but I was relieved to see it not be a heart. With that card not meaning anything, I decided that there really wasn't any way I was folding the hand, so it was time to get it over with. We both showed before the river came and
MH62 showed:
The River:
The River was the Ace of Diamonds. The river not pairing the board gives me the 6 high straight, and Ace to 5 low, allowing me to scoop the 194 dollar pot. If you're up for it, dissect the hand. I believe any errors in the hand were mine, most notably the lack of re-raise after the flop and I'm interested in hearing what the players think.
(Note: After discussion with Pinata and MH62, we still can't narrow down some details like card suit, but the spirit of this hand remains the same. MH62 did not have a flush draw at any point.)
We were 5 handed, I sat in the little blind, MH62 in the big. Texas Crint was Under the Gun, Julio P was next, and el Pinata had the button and the deck.
Pre Flop: Texas Crint called the 50 cent BB, Julio P folded, Pinata calls on the button, and I complete the blind. MH62 raises pot, making it 2 dollars to go. With Texas Crint and Pinata calling, it seemed to make sense to call with the following hole cards:
Hulk Hole Cards:
The Flop:
This is undoubtedly a good flop for me, I've made the 2nd nut straight, and have redraws to the nut low, and a heart flush. Since I'm acting first this round, I decide to bet pot, 8 dollars after the pre-flop action, and much to my surprise MH62 raises pot, making it another $24 to see the turn. Texas Crint and el Pinata fold moving the action back to me. A more experienced player probably re-raises here, the 2nd nuts, redraw to the wheel for the nut low, and the flush redraw which might be good, or at least block the better flush MH62 could be drawing for might make it elementary ... but I agonize about it. Maybe at another game I can discount 4 7 with a pre-flop raise, but look at the logo of this blog. I'm also without an Ace for the nut low, and MH62 re-raised ME ! EMG's mentioned in other posts that I'm pretty tight, so I'm sure he's strong here, maybe stronger than I want him to be. Ah Ac 4h 7s ? 44 77 ? Both hands run through my mind, but I finally decide to call. Not a strong move, and I hated myself for it at the time, but I know that MH62 isn't afraid to draw, and I want some more information before I commit the rest of my chips. I'm just not able to narrow his hand range down enough for the re-raise, and want to keep some of my stack around for later hands.
The Turn:
Any agony that plagued me after the re-raise passed, and as soon as the 10 of diamonds hit I bet pot, which after my call post-flop was a substantial 72 dollars. It was enough to put MH62 all in, and he called for the 61 dollars left in his stack. It wasn't necessarily the turn card that made me lead out. The card didn't change anything for either of us, but I was relieved to see it not be a heart. With that card not meaning anything, I decided that there really wasn't any way I was folding the hand, so it was time to get it over with. We both showed before the river came and
MH62 showed:
The River:
The River was the Ace of Diamonds. The river not pairing the board gives me the 6 high straight, and Ace to 5 low, allowing me to scoop the 194 dollar pot. If you're up for it, dissect the hand. I believe any errors in the hand were mine, most notably the lack of re-raise after the flop and I'm interested in hearing what the players think.
(Note: After discussion with Pinata and MH62, we still can't narrow down some details like card suit, but the spirit of this hand remains the same. MH62 did not have a flush draw at any point.)
Online Breakthrough?
In an earlier post, I highlighted some of the changes I had made to my bankroll management and my overall strategy. It had been paying some dividends, but yesterday/last night, I had a run that was based way more around skill than luck. Perhaps it’s the fact that I’m seeing so many online hands (100 SNG tournaments this month alone), plus I’ve been analyzing my own play, but I cashed in 7 of 11 $5 + $.50 tournaments for a profit (post rake) of $45. Sure, it’s a small time effort, but I think I’ve really turned the corner in terms of playing these small stakes tournaments. Here are some of my adjustments:- Peg it early. Trying to peg the entire table within the first 5 hands, then building my image off those reads. My assessment is that bad players (as most of these guys are) want to convey their image to everyone else because they are first level donks and don’t understand higher level thinking. They are almost always playing their hand and not asking themselves what everyone else has. Because of this, I can quickly pinpoint the attack targets, the trap targets, etc., then adjust my play quickly based on how they react to my play.
- Very few pot-sized continuation bets. I play a little more loose and much more aggressive in these tournaments than I do live because of the quality of competition and because it works better than tighter play, I’ve found. I realized that I kept getting involved in monster pots where I had to bet all in on the turn to take it down because I was betting too much on the flop. I also found that when I had a monster and bet pot, I wasn’t getting enough callers. So, I adjusted it down and am working to build pots with half-pot bets. In this case, if I get raised (or even mini-raised), I have fold equity or pot-building equity. I can get away from a semibluff or a draw much more easily and with more of my stack intact. By consistently raising a set amount based on blind level (usually a little more than 3x the BB) and then continuation betting 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot on the flop, I’m taking down the same number of pots, but I’m also taking down bigger pots and losing less when I get reraised. I also have very few betting pattern tells.
- Making reads. I like to think I have acceptable skills at reading physical tells. Certainly players like Fat Tony, MH62, and Hulk (and I’m sure others) are better than me, but I like to think that I can read betting patterns and decipher what is going on in a hand better than many experienced players. Since there are no physical tells other than the amount of time it takes a player to bet + the betting patterns, it is up to me (or anyone) to determine why the bet was made and what my opponents’ holdings might be. Again, having seen several thousand online hands against some abysmal players, I have been better and better at getting away from hands when I know I’m beat and really making some solid calls. For instance, a few nights ago, I had a flush draw on a board of A-K-7, and bet it, then got reraised all in by a player who had limped on the button. I folded and wrote “you’re A-7 is good for now…”. He flashed A-7. How did I know? Well, the all-in didn’t make sense unless he had A-7 or K-7. Any other hand, and it’s a retarded move. He didn’t seem like a terrible player, so I put him on 2 pair and not wanting to get drawn on. Of course, he sucked all the value out of the hand by pushing, but if I’m stupid enough to call on a draw, he’s a solid favorite…
- Not over-raising/over-calling. We all know that bad players play badly at all times, but a short-stacked bad player should never be doubled up just to get the knockout. I was trying to push the action and investing way too much of my stack with marginal edges (or as a 3:1 dog). Likewise, when I was short-stacked, I was pushing all-in before I had to and in early position with weak A’s or medium K’s and getting called down by players in bad spots. By making later position plays with my short stack and not calling significant portions of my stack on all-ins without strong holdings, I maintained my chip lead (or my stack) and was able to get the money in in a better situation. Likewise, I tighten up as the blinds reach the 50/100 and 60/120 level to avoid getting reraised all in and being pot committed. I’ll then change gears when it’s 80/160, 100/200+ when it becomes profitable and less risky again.
- Not giving up. I really realized my breakthrough last night around 10 PM. On the first hand of a tournament, I got crippled. I held A-8 and checked in the BB. The flop came A-9-8. I called a small raise from the SB. The turn was a 9, which worried me, but I called a 3/4 pot bet from the same guy. I thought he had a 9 for sure, but I was stubborn and had played against so many bad players, I figured if he had A-9, he would have just gone all in... The river was an 8, giving me the 4th nuts (behind AA, 99, and A9). He bet out most of my stack, and I (I suppose stupidly) flat called in case he was playing 10-9 or 9-8. He had A-9, and I had 255 chips starting the second hand. I told myself that I was better than everyone else, and there was no excuse why I couldn't still win. I ground it out, got some luck, picked my spots, and I ended up placing second in that tournament. I didn’t just throw my chips in and look to the next SNG. I was determined to make something happen, and I did. I knew that I’m never out of anything as long as I have chips. I can build off that "victory" for the future.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Upcoming Games
A somewhat action-packed week ahead. Tomorrow we will observe Pinata's departure from the East Coast with a SHOE or HORSE game at Fat Tony's. Expected to be in attendance: Fat Tony, Pinata, Guido, MH62, Hulk, Nate, Dan, and Texas Crint. We're playing $1/$2 with a $.25 ante on the stud games and $.25/$.50 (probably with a $1 straddle much of the time) on the Omaha games. Should be a rip-roaring good time with Pinata stories and perhaps some surprises...
EMHD #3 kicks off Saturday at 3 PM. We're going to celebrate the occasion with a little brunch action and a $20 HORSE tournament. Winner gets bought in to the tournament. Expected participants: Hulk, MH62, Dan, Jocko, Pinata, Shawn, and I. Should be fun and interesting.
Lots more entries to come as we bet, trap, fold, and bluff our way along!
EMHD #3 kicks off Saturday at 3 PM. We're going to celebrate the occasion with a little brunch action and a $20 HORSE tournament. Winner gets bought in to the tournament. Expected participants: Hulk, MH62, Dan, Jocko, Pinata, Shawn, and I. Should be fun and interesting.
Lots more entries to come as we bet, trap, fold, and bluff our way along!
Monday, January 26, 2009
Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 2 of 2)
In Part 1 of this Story EMG examined the following hand from the point of view of djp4516, the player who's pocket aces were cracked in a large pot near the very end of the tournament. EMG and I thought it might be fun to examine the hand from the point of view of pireslousa and that's what I'm gonna try to do
Larger Version
Pre Flop: I've done as much thinking as I can about this mini raise to 2k. I don't like it. I know that professionals like Daniel Negreanu say that a min-raise has its place, but as I understand it he advocates this when the blinds are significant amounts of the stacks and the size of the stacks at this table certainly don't fall into that criteria. I'd have rather pireslousa made a raise to 3500 - 4500, but I can imagine a few thought processes that would lead to this action:
Post Flop: This is not the flop JJ was dreaming about, but with 2nd pair and a redraw to a flush, it might be worth the 6k bet into the (fairly) dry side-pot to isolate against that short stack. The more I've thought about it the more I like the bet. It represents about 1/5th of the pot, and a little less than 1/4th of djp4516's stack. It's just enough that it should eliminate the flat call from djp4516's arsenal and if pireslousa get raised here, folding leaves him 24k in chips at 1k/2k blinds puts him in 3rd or 4th place at that table, not optimal, but in good shape to make the money. The call, however is something I can't believe happened. djp4516's shove should make pireslousa hit the fold button. The only defense of pirelousa's is the pot odds. If I do it right, there's about 63k in the pot, the call for about 20k makes it just over 3 to 1, close enough for the flush redraw if it's good, add two more outs for the other Jacks in the deck and it's a decent price ... but that's cash game talk and I don't think you can even believe your flush would be good if it got there in that spot. In the late stages of a tournament, when you're one big mistake from zero, I think it's a reckless call. Let me know in the comments what I'm wrong about.
Larger Version
Pre Flop: I've done as much thinking as I can about this mini raise to 2k. I don't like it. I know that professionals like Daniel Negreanu say that a min-raise has its place, but as I understand it he advocates this when the blinds are significant amounts of the stacks and the size of the stacks at this table certainly don't fall into that criteria. I'd have rather pireslousa made a raise to 3500 - 4500, but I can imagine a few thought processes that would lead to this action:
- Really Tight table - They'll toss anything if they're not willing to play a big pot with me. If the respect my stack, they'll leave, and if any of the small stacks shove, I'm not so invested that I can't leave, or if I really think they'll shove with hands like AK, I'll race for up to 12k.
- Scared of Jacks - Maybe this stands on its own, maybe in combination with scenario 1, the min raise is just enough to say I'm interested in this hand, but let the other players at the table make the next move and let me see where I fit in and gauge my comfort level.
Post Flop: This is not the flop JJ was dreaming about, but with 2nd pair and a redraw to a flush, it might be worth the 6k bet into the (fairly) dry side-pot to isolate against that short stack. The more I've thought about it the more I like the bet. It represents about 1/5th of the pot, and a little less than 1/4th of djp4516's stack. It's just enough that it should eliminate the flat call from djp4516's arsenal and if pireslousa get raised here, folding leaves him 24k in chips at 1k/2k blinds puts him in 3rd or 4th place at that table, not optimal, but in good shape to make the money. The call, however is something I can't believe happened. djp4516's shove should make pireslousa hit the fold button. The only defense of pirelousa's is the pot odds. If I do it right, there's about 63k in the pot, the call for about 20k makes it just over 3 to 1, close enough for the flush redraw if it's good, add two more outs for the other Jacks in the deck and it's a decent price ... but that's cash game talk and I don't think you can even believe your flush would be good if it got there in that spot. In the late stages of a tournament, when you're one big mistake from zero, I think it's a reckless call. Let me know in the comments what I'm wrong about.
Texas Crint Hosts a Game, 1/25
Played a lunch money-esque game at Texas Crint’s house last night from 6 PM – 8:45 PM (give or take). In attendance during my session were Texas Crint, MH62, Julio, Pinata, and Big John. It was a 6-handed game, so starting hand values went up, obviously. I was decently card dead for a lot of the time, and I didn’t play well. I made a theoretically bad laydown to Pinata, who pushed all in on a board of J-7-2 after raising preflop, and I had Turkey Nerd (7-4). It was a $17 raise into a $10 pot, and I tanked for a while, then folded, putting him on A-7/K-7, meaning I had 3 outs at best. He showed the bluff with 10-5. Not sure if I should have made that play, but I likely had outs if I had. Later, Texas Crint caught a 3 outer on my J-10 with J-2, and I paid him off on the river (read it like a busted flush draw, which was realistic given the way the hand was played). I later made a stupid all in call of $14 against Pinata, who had flopped a boat. After that, I was decently scared and totally card-dead. Not at all a good combination. I technically could have quit, but I wanted to grind through it. I didn't take unnecessary risks, which I am happy about... I saw 1 pocket pair and zero double suited hands in 12 Omahahands. I think I saw only 2 suited hands total in my Omaha time, which is quite odd. I played them tight and really didn’t invest much in these weak starting hands, which was good.
Overall, I was stuck $50, which is not terrible, but I missed a few bets and should have called Pinata's all in early and not called that last $14 later. Given my cards, I estimate that I should have been stuck about $20, but I played well below my best for the last hour, and that led to the poor result. Chalk up $30 in losses to bad play and $20 in losses to variance.
Overall, I was stuck $50, which is not terrible, but I missed a few bets and should have called Pinata's all in early and not called that last $14 later. Given my cards, I estimate that I should have been stuck about $20, but I played well below my best for the last hour, and that led to the poor result. Chalk up $30 in losses to bad play and $20 in losses to variance.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Online Hand History... Overvaluing AA (Part 1 of 2)
See the video below. Here is a large version. This hand history was presented to us from a friend on a non-poker message board (in the poker thread). This is from the final stages of a $10 + $1 90 man deep stack tournament on an unnamed online site. There are 15 players left, and the top 9 get paid.First place earns roughly $325. Our “hero” has AA in late position with 7 people at the table…
Preflop: I like the raise there. Obviously, you’re reraising preflop (raised or not) with AA here. The size of the bet is about right to me. You’re hoping that everyone folds, and you take down a $4k pot. Worst case, you’re looking at an all-in from the baby stack or a reraise from an underpair, then you get it all in as a 4:1 fave. The BB goes all in, which has to be a worry. Why put your entire tournament on the line when there’s a raise and a reraise? Sure, you have AA, but that has to be a concern. Here, the UTG miniraiser flat-calls. Personally, I can’t stand a mini-raise at any point in any NL game. Either make a man-sized raise, call, or fold… However, the guy just flat calls with 3:1 odds. You have to immediately put him on a range of hands. I probably focus in on AK suited, KK, QQ, maybe JJ or 10’s. I don’t see most players risking that much with anything less, especially at a $10 buy-in. You have to figure that the dead money is already out at this point. You can probably discount KK because KK probably reraises all in there to isolate. In lower limits, people also overvalue AK, so AK probably reraises all in.
The Flop: Horrible flop here. You have no hearts, and it’s come Q-10-4, all hearts. If you have the guy on a pair from 8’s-Q’s, there’s a decent likelihood that he hit a set there. If he just has AK, he could have a made nut flush or the Ah/Kh, meaning you need a runner-runner boat to win. He bets out at this flop. The fact that he's betting into you after you showed so much strength preflop says 1 of 3 things: 1) "I have a set of Q's or 10’s, back off". 2) I have a made flush. Go away." or 3) "I have an overpair and a heart. Back off." Given the size of the bet (1/6 of the pot), you almost have to put him on the nut flush (AhKh, maybe AhJh. Why else would he value bet? Worst case, he has a set, meaning you have 2 outs at best to win (or runner-runner for a full house). Of all the hands he could have, the best case scenario is AQ with the Ah.
The Push: I personally think you have to fold and take your $26k (26 BB’s) and wait for another spot. In fact, I probably check it down unless I hit running boat cards. Instead, the “Hero” came over the top for $26k total. Really not the right play. As I mentioned, you have 26 BB’s left, and you’re still healthy. You have enough chips to play 16-18 rounds. You’re also betting $26k to win $6k if he folds, and you’re still up against the all-in player. I’m not shocked that the Hero got called, but the real amazement on my end is that he got called by JJ with the Jh. While the push was the wrong decision, I have no idea why the opponent bet or the called there. The Hulk will examine the hand from the viewpoint of the JJ player.
Preflop: I like the raise there. Obviously, you’re reraising preflop (raised or not) with AA here. The size of the bet is about right to me. You’re hoping that everyone folds, and you take down a $4k pot. Worst case, you’re looking at an all-in from the baby stack or a reraise from an underpair, then you get it all in as a 4:1 fave. The BB goes all in, which has to be a worry. Why put your entire tournament on the line when there’s a raise and a reraise? Sure, you have AA, but that has to be a concern. Here, the UTG miniraiser flat-calls. Personally, I can’t stand a mini-raise at any point in any NL game. Either make a man-sized raise, call, or fold… However, the guy just flat calls with 3:1 odds. You have to immediately put him on a range of hands. I probably focus in on AK suited, KK, QQ, maybe JJ or 10’s. I don’t see most players risking that much with anything less, especially at a $10 buy-in. You have to figure that the dead money is already out at this point. You can probably discount KK because KK probably reraises all in there to isolate. In lower limits, people also overvalue AK, so AK probably reraises all in.
The Flop: Horrible flop here. You have no hearts, and it’s come Q-10-4, all hearts. If you have the guy on a pair from 8’s-Q’s, there’s a decent likelihood that he hit a set there. If he just has AK, he could have a made nut flush or the Ah/Kh, meaning you need a runner-runner boat to win. He bets out at this flop. The fact that he's betting into you after you showed so much strength preflop says 1 of 3 things: 1) "I have a set of Q's or 10’s, back off". 2) I have a made flush. Go away." or 3) "I have an overpair and a heart. Back off." Given the size of the bet (1/6 of the pot), you almost have to put him on the nut flush (AhKh, maybe AhJh. Why else would he value bet? Worst case, he has a set, meaning you have 2 outs at best to win (or runner-runner for a full house). Of all the hands he could have, the best case scenario is AQ with the Ah.
The Push: I personally think you have to fold and take your $26k (26 BB’s) and wait for another spot. In fact, I probably check it down unless I hit running boat cards. Instead, the “Hero” came over the top for $26k total. Really not the right play. As I mentioned, you have 26 BB’s left, and you’re still healthy. You have enough chips to play 16-18 rounds. You’re also betting $26k to win $6k if he folds, and you’re still up against the all-in player. I’m not shocked that the Hero got called, but the real amazement on my end is that he got called by JJ with the Jh. While the push was the wrong decision, I have no idea why the opponent bet or the called there. The Hulk will examine the hand from the viewpoint of the JJ player.
Enter The Hulk
Since MH62 can’t quite figure out THE BLOGSPOT (credit to Fat Tony for the reference), I have recruited The Hulk to discuss, post, and make general merriment on the site. He gave us the first version of Turkey Nerd history, and his understanding of the game (both online and live cash/tournament) is excellent. I look forward to his contributions. Likewise, if Mr. Primetime chooses to contribute, that would be beautimus!
What the fahk is "The Facebook"?
As you can imagine, MH62 is an old bastard. He was supposed to be a contributor to this blog with his vast knowledge of local home games, pub poker, and his unique philosophy on life. However, it is quite obvious that he is an elderly curmudgeon who is clearly set in his ways. He can comment on the blog (with help from me to even sign in), but he can't be bothered to post. What a d-bag! It's not like he has anything better to do other than iron and knit in his yenta sewing circles!
Anyway, I read this Onion article a few weeks back, and it amused me because my parents (who are right around 60 years old) act in a similar way. Before the last EMHD event, Shrek and I were teasing MH62 about his horrific Facebook picture (picture not shown to protect the innocent). MH62 got all huffy and started yelling, “I don’t even know how to use THE FACEBOOK!!!” I’m not sure what THE Facebook is, but Facebook is a very popular social networking site used by many people around the world. Congrats! You are officially as technologically retarded as a 60 year old Jewish couple who raised me! Must feel good... What's that? I hear the oven timer going off. Your souflette is done! Chop chop, Mr. Mom!
Perhaps you had to be there, but if you know MH62, you’re sure to get a kick out of it. While I’m on the topic of things MH62 says, this t-shirt is awesome!
Anyway, I read this Onion article a few weeks back, and it amused me because my parents (who are right around 60 years old) act in a similar way. Before the last EMHD event, Shrek and I were teasing MH62 about his horrific Facebook picture (picture not shown to protect the innocent). MH62 got all huffy and started yelling, “I don’t even know how to use THE FACEBOOK!!!” I’m not sure what THE Facebook is, but Facebook is a very popular social networking site used by many people around the world. Congrats! You are officially as technologically retarded as a 60 year old Jewish couple who raised me! Must feel good... What's that? I hear the oven timer going off. Your souflette is done! Chop chop, Mr. Mom!
Perhaps you had to be there, but if you know MH62, you’re sure to get a kick out of it. While I’m on the topic of things MH62 says, this t-shirt is awesome!
Mr. Prime Time!!!
It turns out that not only is MH62 a poker sensation, he is also an internet sensation. We have video evidence!
Thursday, January 22, 2009
EMHD #2, 1/17/09
After missing the first EMHD tournament, I was excited to enter my first event of the series this past Saturday. I was feeling pretty good, wearing my Turkey Nerd t-shirt and Donkey Punch hoodie. I felt ready to play, and we drew a pretty nice field of 24 people. After the rake for the main prize, the tournament paid 4 places with a total pool of $1,900. Pretty nice pot. Overall, newcomer Justin chopped first/second with Fat Tony at a 60/40 rate (Justin had Tony out-chipped 2:1), Jim S finished third, DMT fourth, with My Fair Lady Terri in her Steelers garb on the bubble. In terms of other usual characters: Big John made the final table on an extreme short stack and finished 8th, MH62 placed 13th, Texas Crint 14th, I got 17th, and Shawn exited first (24th place). I do want to note that Tony was a proxy for Klinkerbell, so Klinker now is the only player to earn points at both EMHD events. Overall standings right now:
1. Harry G: 1,320 points
2. Klinkerbell: 1,116 points
3. Justin F.: 1,080 points
4. MH62: 660 points
5. Jim S.: 360 points
6. Julio: 264 points
7. DMT: 240 points
Final Table Analysis: Once Julio went out, it really was a very tight final table. Big John, Fat Tony, DMT, Terri, Jim, and Jocko are tight players to begin with, and Justin wasn’t showing a whole lot of waggle. Joe, who is normally a hyper-aggressive preflop player, stopped playing hands. He complained afterwards that he just had no cards. Against a tight group of players, it is in your best interest to play more aggressive, so I don’t buy that excuse. In my opinion, Joe and Terri went like Broomcorn’s Uncle (ante’d to death). Terri especially did not take advantage of her gigantic chip stack. I know for a fact that she folded UTG with 99 in a 6-handed game because she didn’t want to get reraised. It turned out on that hand that Jocko and Tony clashed head to head, and Fat Tony emerged victorious with trip 8’s, but there’s no reason to not make a play there with a medium or premium pair. If you’re not playing to win, you’re probably not going to. When it got down to 6 players, the blinds eventually caught up to everyone. Even at that point, a “big stack” only had 12-14 BB’s, meaning that blind stealing was important at the right time. I saw way too little aggression from everyone. With the way the tournament was structured, it became a card-catching contest. Terri and Joe let themselves become microstacked. Joe went out with KJ offsuit and got killed by Jim, and Terri was way short stacked with JJ and ran into Dawn’s AA on the bubble.
Now that everyone had cashed, the play loosened up some, but I really saw no raising or reraising from the generally tight group. With the blinds up to 1,000/2,000 and more, it became a card-catching contest. Justin was the beneficiary, hitting AA and getting paid with big pots twice. I do note that Fat Tony really started attacking Jim and Dawn’s BB 4-handed, and that aggression helped him build enough of a stack to stay ahead of the curve. I really would have preferred to see one of the players in the final 6 take a table captain role and really push people around, but no one did. In the end, it became a battle of variance. Tony probably played the strongest of anyone at that table, and Justin had the best luck with hands at the right time. That’s why they were the big winners.
1. Harry G: 1,320 points
2. Klinkerbell: 1,116 points
3. Justin F.: 1,080 points
4. MH62: 660 points
5. Jim S.: 360 points
6. Julio: 264 points
7. DMT: 240 points
Final Table Analysis: Once Julio went out, it really was a very tight final table. Big John, Fat Tony, DMT, Terri, Jim, and Jocko are tight players to begin with, and Justin wasn’t showing a whole lot of waggle. Joe, who is normally a hyper-aggressive preflop player, stopped playing hands. He complained afterwards that he just had no cards. Against a tight group of players, it is in your best interest to play more aggressive, so I don’t buy that excuse. In my opinion, Joe and Terri went like Broomcorn’s Uncle (ante’d to death). Terri especially did not take advantage of her gigantic chip stack. I know for a fact that she folded UTG with 99 in a 6-handed game because she didn’t want to get reraised. It turned out on that hand that Jocko and Tony clashed head to head, and Fat Tony emerged victorious with trip 8’s, but there’s no reason to not make a play there with a medium or premium pair. If you’re not playing to win, you’re probably not going to. When it got down to 6 players, the blinds eventually caught up to everyone. Even at that point, a “big stack” only had 12-14 BB’s, meaning that blind stealing was important at the right time. I saw way too little aggression from everyone. With the way the tournament was structured, it became a card-catching contest. Terri and Joe let themselves become microstacked. Joe went out with KJ offsuit and got killed by Jim, and Terri was way short stacked with JJ and ran into Dawn’s AA on the bubble.
Now that everyone had cashed, the play loosened up some, but I really saw no raising or reraising from the generally tight group. With the blinds up to 1,000/2,000 and more, it became a card-catching contest. Justin was the beneficiary, hitting AA and getting paid with big pots twice. I do note that Fat Tony really started attacking Jim and Dawn’s BB 4-handed, and that aggression helped him build enough of a stack to stay ahead of the curve. I really would have preferred to see one of the players in the final 6 take a table captain role and really push people around, but no one did. In the end, it became a battle of variance. Tony probably played the strongest of anyone at that table, and Justin had the best luck with hands at the right time. That’s why they were the big winners.
Online Analysis to Date
I have been playing a decent amount of online poker using Full Tilt. My goal is to turn a $100 bankroll investment into $1000 by December. I started off pretty strong, raking in $100 in my first month playing 5/10 cent NLHE 2 and 3 tables at a time. I was playing a more tight-solid game at that point, targeting weak players, keeping pots small, playing pots for value. However, I was having trouble playing against hyper-aggressive players for whatever reason. I would get impatient and would call all-ins with just flush draws or a weak A. It was a dumb strategy, and I started to backslide. Stupidly, instead of just shifting my strategy or table selecting better, I decided to switch and play Pot Limit Omaha (PLO) at the 5/10 cent levels. This was disastrous to my bankroll. I went from a + $80 month my first month to below my initial $100 in bankroll.
Looking back, I was playing pretty much every double-suited hands, big pairs, and suited and connecting hands. While I may have overvalued some of my hands preflop, I was also not accounting for the type of game I would encounter. It is essentially impossible to bluff at this level. Since the variance can be so high, pretty much everyone plays every pot, and you need the stone nuts to even bet. Even when you have the best hand, things swing back and forth. I flopped quads over quads twice and won big pots, only to flop a full house the next pot and lose to quads. At a max $10 buy-in per table, you basically have enough in your stack to play 1 monster pot, so you’re very variance dependent. I like to semibluff my draws (the only way to play PLO), but against 4-5 other players, it is very tough to know where you’re at from street to street.
After getting cracked for pretty much all of my profits that I ground out in Hold Em, I gave up and realized that I really didn’t have the roll right now to play cash the way I want to play. I had been playing some Sit N Go’s (SNG), with pretty solid results (expected profit of $3.50 per 6 max SNG). I decided to rebuild my roll by multitabling $5 6 max SNG’s exclusively. In the past 2 weeks, I’m earning about $2 profit per match. I know that I am significantly better than my competition, so I use that advantage, plus I am being much more aggressive preflop early in tournaments. I set an aggressive image early and tend to get my big hands paid off. For instance, last night I called a raised with 10-7 suited, flopped 2 pair against JJ and doubled up. The very next hand, I picked up QQ and pumped it up again, and got reraised all-in by K-10 (hand of death). I instacalled and busted the guy. All of a sudden, I’m sitting with $5k in chips with 4 players left, and I can afford to sit back and pick spots. In general, I peg the table within the first 7-10 hands, and I pick on the ones who I can pick on, and value bet the heck out of every pot. I also play the short stack well, so even if I have to fold on a scary board, I’m still in every tournament. I’ve gone from 300 chips early to winning the thing by not getting desperate.
At the same time, one big adjustment that I’ve made here (that I almost never do live) is flat calling preflop or checking the BB with AK, particularly if I’ve been playing loose and aggressive. When I hit, I tend to bet out against the aggressor and tend to get met with a reraise, so I get my chips in. Even if the flop is super scary, I just get away from it with a limp. Not overplaying AK has a very high EV for me, particularly with the image that I’ve set.
Overall, I’m back up about $25 over my initial buy ($125 total). It has been a better month with me playing smarter, playing fewer tables, and quitting whenever I feel I’m not playing my best. I’m happy with the result playing the SNG’s, but I want to get my roll up to $200 total, so I can start playing some 5/10 cent NLHE to really build my roll.
Looking back, I was playing pretty much every double-suited hands, big pairs, and suited and connecting hands. While I may have overvalued some of my hands preflop, I was also not accounting for the type of game I would encounter. It is essentially impossible to bluff at this level. Since the variance can be so high, pretty much everyone plays every pot, and you need the stone nuts to even bet. Even when you have the best hand, things swing back and forth. I flopped quads over quads twice and won big pots, only to flop a full house the next pot and lose to quads. At a max $10 buy-in per table, you basically have enough in your stack to play 1 monster pot, so you’re very variance dependent. I like to semibluff my draws (the only way to play PLO), but against 4-5 other players, it is very tough to know where you’re at from street to street.
After getting cracked for pretty much all of my profits that I ground out in Hold Em, I gave up and realized that I really didn’t have the roll right now to play cash the way I want to play. I had been playing some Sit N Go’s (SNG), with pretty solid results (expected profit of $3.50 per 6 max SNG). I decided to rebuild my roll by multitabling $5 6 max SNG’s exclusively. In the past 2 weeks, I’m earning about $2 profit per match. I know that I am significantly better than my competition, so I use that advantage, plus I am being much more aggressive preflop early in tournaments. I set an aggressive image early and tend to get my big hands paid off. For instance, last night I called a raised with 10-7 suited, flopped 2 pair against JJ and doubled up. The very next hand, I picked up QQ and pumped it up again, and got reraised all-in by K-10 (hand of death). I instacalled and busted the guy. All of a sudden, I’m sitting with $5k in chips with 4 players left, and I can afford to sit back and pick spots. In general, I peg the table within the first 7-10 hands, and I pick on the ones who I can pick on, and value bet the heck out of every pot. I also play the short stack well, so even if I have to fold on a scary board, I’m still in every tournament. I’ve gone from 300 chips early to winning the thing by not getting desperate.
At the same time, one big adjustment that I’ve made here (that I almost never do live) is flat calling preflop or checking the BB with AK, particularly if I’ve been playing loose and aggressive. When I hit, I tend to bet out against the aggressor and tend to get met with a reraise, so I get my chips in. Even if the flop is super scary, I just get away from it with a limp. Not overplaying AK has a very high EV for me, particularly with the image that I’ve set.
Overall, I’m back up about $25 over my initial buy ($125 total). It has been a better month with me playing smarter, playing fewer tables, and quitting whenever I feel I’m not playing my best. I’m happy with the result playing the SNG’s, but I want to get my roll up to $200 total, so I can start playing some 5/10 cent NLHE to really build my roll.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Turkey Nerd History, Part I
o In an effort to edumacate all of you honkeys, crackers, and other assorted racial epithets, I asked around to the Lunch Money Game crew for their version of how the venerable term ‘Turkey Nerd’ came into existence. The first respondent is Big John, who offered this historical gem:
The TurkeyNerd was born in the 'Lunch Money' game. One of the
regulars, The Blind Master River King (BMRK), has a loose style of play that generates huge swings during his sessions.* Generally good natured about the hand's outcome, should he lose the pot, whoever drags the chips to their stack will be derided with such strong language as "you Turkey!" or "Nerd!" thrown in as a bit of a change up.
In the BMRK's absence at one session, he was imitated by the losers of pots. EMG has the best voice imitation, but we all do our best. And as the words came out they were eventually put together. I was card dead that night, losing most of the pots I played, and being very easy to entertain, I spent most of that session either repeating the new compound word or laughing at it in my head. Who holds claim to saying it first ? I think it was me, but it belongs to this group of degenerates now.
There is no real reason that the 4 of diamonds and 7 of clubs is the official TurkeyNerd hand ... when I made the graphic it seemed only right to grab a raggedy starting hand that met the criteria of being
Either a Made Hand ... or a Draw.
* Loose is not the right word, but it's the closest word in the Poker lexicon that I know of. Playing against the BMRK is very similar to playing a human slot machine. He's impossible to read, because he'll refuse to look and won't know his cards at least 1/2 the time. And if you're not betting the nuts, you're bound to have 2nd best.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Hand Histories (I need a straw from all that sucking out...)
As I mentioned before, I was a bit of a suckout king last night. I hit 3-outers in 3 large hands against better A's, plus my lovely 5-2 rivered straight. See below for some of the highlights. Critique and discussion is welcome!- Early in the session, I picked up AsJc in the BB. Pinata raised it up in early position to $3, and there were 2 callers. I thought about reraising, but I opted to flat call, with the plan of possibly betting or check-raising the flop depending on “texture”. The flop came out A-J-7, rainbow, so I had top 2 pair. I checked, hoping that someone (namely Pinata) had AK, AQ, A-10, or A-7, so I could get it all in as a favorite. My main worry was 77 because it was less likely he spiked the case J or the case A. He bet $12 (pot bet), making the pot about $24, and I had about $35 behind me. I thought for a second, thinking about flat-calling. If I flat-called, I’d have $20-25 behind me, and the pot would be $36, meaning that if a “scare” card came on the turn, I wouldn’t have enough to push him off it. I thought about pushing, and he told me I’d get called. I decided he had AK or AQ and pushed. He had AK. Blanks on the turn/river, and I raked a nice $75-80 pot.
- We saw quads last night, though not the easily concealed kind. Essentially, Dooley had raised in early position on every street with a board of A-9-x. The turn and river were both 9’s. The pot was around $25, and he bet $10. Pinata reraised all in for about $18 more. Dooley went into the tank and said out loud, “I think you have the 9 for quads…” For some reason, he ended up flipping a coin (literally) to decide whether to call with his A (aces full of 9’s). He called, and Pinata dragged a nice pot.
- About 25 mins later, I got AJ again in middle position. MH6-2, an aggressive player, raised to $3. Wanting to isolate and maybe take down a $4 pot, I reraised to $11. It folded back around to him, and he stared me down. The longer he stared me down, the better I felt that I had the best hand. He is capable of making that raise with suited connectors, KQ, KJ, etc. He is also capable of having a big pair, but I didn’t get that sense. I felt like he was really trying to read me and decide if pushing ($14.75 more) would win the pot or if he was ahead. He did push, and I thought heavily about calling. The pot was $22.75 + his $14.75 for a total of $37.50. I had about 3:1 to call. If I had a better A, I was 3:1 to win. If he had an underpair, I was about 48% to win. If he had a bigger A, I was 1:3 to lose. Given those possibilities, I decided to call. He had AQ, and I caught a J on the river to stack him. Sucky suckout, and I hate doing it to people, but I’ll take the money.
- Around 10:15, I got Q-3 of hearts on the button. It was limped around, so I called the 50 cents more with 5 people in the pot. The flop was 4-3-3, 2 diamonds. It was checked around to me, so I checked trying to trap. The turn was a 5 of spades, putting a 3 card straight and 2 flush draws on the board. I felt like maybe I could have the best hand, but I definitely feared a diamond draw or a made straight with 6-7. The pot was only $2.50, but it was raised in early position, and MH6-2 reraised to $6. I put him on a 4-7 or a flush draw, so I flat called. The original raiser folded, making the pot $16.50. The river was a blank. MH bet $10, and I called, hoping my set was good. He had the 6-7 for a nice $36.50 pot.
- I caught on Pinata again for a $35 pot with A-9. Caught 2 pair on the flop and check-called, then bet the turn, and rivered a full house and value bet it at $13. He called with AJ (I think), and I showed the boat.
- My favorite hand that I played last night was when I had 5-2 of diamonds in mid/late position. There was an UTG raise to $2 (a “mini-raise”), and MH6-2 called. There was one other late position caller, making the starting pot about $8.75. The flop came out K-4-3, with 1 diamond, giving me the up and down straight draw and a backdoor flush draw. The original raiser led out for $6. MH6-2 folded (turned out to be 8’s), and I opted to flat call heads up and in position. The turn was the 8 of diamonds, pissing off MH, but I added a flush draw to my straight. For some reason, the bet was pretty tiny ($8). I felt like he had a big K or maybe a garbage 2 pair, and he was value betting me. I didn’t put him on a flush draw because he led out in early position. I felt if I hit any of my 15 outs (9 diamonds, 3 6’s + 3 A’s), I would get paid. I flat called the $8, making the pot $36. The river was a black A, so no flush, but the nut straight (and very nicely concealed). He bet out $12, and I sat and thought about how much I could raise and get paid. I decided on an $18 reraise ($30 total). If he had a set or a big 2 pair, he’d maybe reraise, and I could get all my money in. If he had a smaller 2 pair or maybe KQ, I would get a call. He had K-4 (2 pair) and called. I dragged a $96 pot.
- Sick value check from Pinata against MH6-2. There was a 3-5 on the board, and MH made a comment when calling a $20 bet that he was looking to catch his draw. There were no flushes on the board. A 2 came on the river. MH checked, and Pinata immediately checked behind with 2-pair, stating that MH’s 4-6 was good with a straight. Awesome read.
Live Cash Session, 1/14/09
Played last night at the “Lunch Money Game”. Some of the usual crowd was there: Fat Tony (the host), Guido, Pinata, MH6-2. We were missing Captain Insane-O (AKA Shrek), Texas Crint, Big John, and the Blind Master River King from the usual crew. I went into the game deciding to be more aggressive and to raise in position and attack the raisers, specifically the more aggressive players like MH, Pinata, and Guido. I played about 50% of my hands and really didn’t lay down any solid starting hands without a raise and a reraise in front of me. Overall, I think I played well, though I didn’t have many premium hands. The best pocket pair I saw all night was 8’s, but it was on a misdeal. I didn’t have AK or AQ, either. I suppose the poker gods repaid my “bad luck” in that regard with some lucky catches. I turned that luck into a $74 profit.
Overall, I think I played well. I don’t think I missed any big betting opportunities, and I used my image of somewhat tight, but tricky to steal some pots. People tend to give me credit for a hand when I bet or check-raise, so I try to mix that stuff up. However, I also vary my play from hand to hand based on how I think people are perceiving me. So, if I think people think I’m playing too fast, and I pick up a big hand, I’ll raise hoping to get reraised or called. Likewise, if I think people consider me very tight, I’ll raise preflop and continuation bet with 4-2. I like to think that I am capable of making moves at any time based on the situation, but I want to get more aggressive in my cash game because I sometimes get too little action on my big hands. If I play a little more aggressive, I think I can win more over the long term while not putting my money in the middle when I know I’m flat beat. I have to trust my reads and not be scared to lose $10 here and there. Last night was Phase I of my plan to play better and more aggressively in 2009, and the results are solid, albeit thanks to some luck. Some hand histories will follow.
I am definitely looking forward to EMHD 2 on Saturday. I think last night was a nice session for me, and I think that I can use my tournament strategy knowledge + basic reading ability and turn it into some cash (and points towards the prize).
Overall, I think I played well. I don’t think I missed any big betting opportunities, and I used my image of somewhat tight, but tricky to steal some pots. People tend to give me credit for a hand when I bet or check-raise, so I try to mix that stuff up. However, I also vary my play from hand to hand based on how I think people are perceiving me. So, if I think people think I’m playing too fast, and I pick up a big hand, I’ll raise hoping to get reraised or called. Likewise, if I think people consider me very tight, I’ll raise preflop and continuation bet with 4-2. I like to think that I am capable of making moves at any time based on the situation, but I want to get more aggressive in my cash game because I sometimes get too little action on my big hands. If I play a little more aggressive, I think I can win more over the long term while not putting my money in the middle when I know I’m flat beat. I have to trust my reads and not be scared to lose $10 here and there. Last night was Phase I of my plan to play better and more aggressively in 2009, and the results are solid, albeit thanks to some luck. Some hand histories will follow.
I am definitely looking forward to EMHD 2 on Saturday. I think last night was a nice session for me, and I think that I can use my tournament strategy knowledge + basic reading ability and turn it into some cash (and points towards the prize).
Monday, January 12, 2009
EMHD Event #2: Saturday, 1/17/09
Part of the reason behind his site was to discuss and post updates on the EMHD, which is a project that my co-author, MH62 put together in collaboration with myself and several other home game compadres. EMHD = Either a Made Hand or a Draw, based around another story that my counterpart will post sometime in the future.Essentially, this is a tournament league where a group of us plays a series of medium stakes buy-in tournements ($100 or so), and we track results and points based on finish and knockouts, etc. Each tournament will rake a sum off the top to be put in the final prize pool. At the end of the seven events, the leading point getter receives enough to fund roundtrip airfare to Vegas, enough for 2-3 night's hotel, and $1500 for a buy-in to a World Series of Poker event.
This will be my personal first event of the Series, but I am looking forward to it. I hope to be back with a critique of my play, some hand histories of large hands that I witnessed, and some final results for you all.
Yet another reason why I'm a sick bastard...
I am a huge Eagles fan and have been since birth. My mom held me in her lap watching the Eagles get crushed in Super Bowl XV, and I came of age as a fan during the great Eagles defenses of 1989-1992 with Randle Cunningham as a homeless man's Donovan McNabb. Anyway, no sooner did the Eagles defeat the Giants, then I was on Stubhub, eBay, and Kayak looking for game and plan tickets to get to Phoenix for the NFC Championship.
I estimated my total costs at $942 ($220 for a game ticket, $500 airfare, splitting hotel and car + food = another $222). I actually went through on a spreadsheet and figured out where I'd get the money from, what credit cards I'd use, and how long it would take to pay it off if I lived the same way. Turns out that with interest, the trip would cost me about $1,500, and I wouldn't be able to afford a new TV for 3 months and couldn't go on vacation until October.
After that, I did another spreadsheet with a cost/benefit analysis and actually estimated my utility from going on the trip (if they won) vs. going on the trip if they lost and assigned weighted averages based on probability of winning. I compared that to the baseline of more financial flexibility, the new TV sooner, and a vacation this summer, and I determined that I would be happier watching the game at Rhino Bar with all the other Iggles fans, and just call it a day.
Sure, I could have come to this decision with simple math or basic logic, but apparently, in depth statistical and "economic" analysis was needed. OY!
I estimated my total costs at $942 ($220 for a game ticket, $500 airfare, splitting hotel and car + food = another $222). I actually went through on a spreadsheet and figured out where I'd get the money from, what credit cards I'd use, and how long it would take to pay it off if I lived the same way. Turns out that with interest, the trip would cost me about $1,500, and I wouldn't be able to afford a new TV for 3 months and couldn't go on vacation until October.
After that, I did another spreadsheet with a cost/benefit analysis and actually estimated my utility from going on the trip (if they won) vs. going on the trip if they lost and assigned weighted averages based on probability of winning. I compared that to the baseline of more financial flexibility, the new TV sooner, and a vacation this summer, and I determined that I would be happier watching the game at Rhino Bar with all the other Iggles fans, and just call it a day.
Sure, I could have come to this decision with simple math or basic logic, but apparently, in depth statistical and "economic" analysis was needed. OY!
Thursday, January 8, 2009
2 Donkeys, 1 Blog...
If you are reading this blog, CONGRATULATIONS! You have officially bottomed out and can now start on your road to recovery...
This blog is a commentary on our collective experiences living life, playing poker (from free donkey tournaments at local bars to low stakes home games to online play), disturbing social trends, college and pro sports, television shows, and funny stories that we have to share. If you're looking to improve your poker game, you almost certainly have come to the wrong place. However, if you're looking for enjoyable stories about one-liners at the poker table, "big" hand analysis, busting chops, and some other non-poker anecdotes, you have also come to the wrong place...
Sit back, relax, and enjoy! It's not like you have work to do or anything...
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